Blue Grass Stakes Predictions, Picks, Odds (Keeneland)

Blazing Sevens

After a solid juvenile campaign in which he won twice, led by a sloppy edition of the Grade 1 Champagne, the son of Good Magic did absolutely nothing in his 3-year-old debut. 

Trained by Chad Brown and to be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., he is eligible to bounce back off the poor effort in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, but it’s tough to go from an absolute drubbing to a Grade 1 victory. This is especially true of young horses. 

It would not shock me if he runs a good race, given his back class, but I am looking elsewhere in this solid field.

Sun Thunder

After a very good second behind Angel of Empire in the Grade 2 Risen Star, he disappointed last time in the Louisiana Derby. The runner-up finish two starts back has since been flattered, as both the first and third-place finishers came back with big wins. 

If the son of Into Mischief can bounce back here, he is a contender. He lacks early speed, but he has been a pretty consistent late runner. 

Even the fifth-place finish in the last one is not all that bad when you consider the lack of early pace and the traffic encountered. The Kenny McPeek-trained runner looks like a serious threat to be a part of the exotics on Saturday.

Classic Car Wash

He had no answer for the powerful finish of Tapit Trice last time, but he was clearly second-best in a big field in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

It was actually the fourth straight solid performance since returning from a layoff late last year for trainer Mark Casse. A son of Noble Bird, he will need a bit better to win this, but cannot be dismissed off his recent form. 

I do like a few others better here, but he should offer value and is a legitimate threat to be in the exotics on Saturday.

Haye’s Strike

The second of three from trainer Kenny McPeek, he comes in off a pretty nice stakes win at Laurel Park. This will undoubtedly be tougher, but off the win he merits consideration. 

Unfortunately, he has had plenty of chances against better horses in the past and has not been able to seriously contend for the win, but he has shown the ability to rally into the lower spots on the exotics 

The son of Connect ran poorly in his only previous start at Keeneland, but I think he is a different horse now. He will be the one I use below in the exotics.

Scoobie Quando

Having never raced on dirt before, it’s a bit of a guessing game with this one from the barn of Ben Colebrook. He’s had three career races and they’ve all come over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park. 

He’s been solid with a win and two seconds while running against some decent horses there. As a son of Uncle Mo, he could appreciate the dirt, but his female side is more for the turf. 

With good form, he could be a contender if he loves dirt, but that’s too large of a question mark as he runs in his toughest test yet.

Mendelssohns March

Officially unbeaten after being put up by disqualification in his debut, this Kenny McPeek-trained runner has shown some versatility already in his two-race career. 

In his debut, he set all the pace on the turf and could have wired it, if not for the trouble. Next out, he waited on some traffic before rallying for the win in an allowance race over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park.

This race will probably be too large of a step up, but he is an interesting horse to keep an eye on down the road.

Major Blue

The timeless D. Wayne Lukas shoots for another Kentucky Derby starter when he sends out this son of Flatter for his first stakes attempt on Saturday. The Blue Grass is certainly not an easy spot for a stakes debut, but he does come in off two straight wins. 

Showing steady improvement in his four career starts, he was a game maiden winner at a flat mile two starts back at Oaklawn Park. Off that effort, he came back twelve days later to wire a 5 1/2-furlong allowance race at the same track. 

It’s an unusual progression but one that should have him sharp and contesting the lead here. As for hanging around when the real running begins, crazier things have happened, but it seems like a lot to ask.

Clear the Air

Once a winner in four lifetime starts, this son of Ransom the Moon will try graded stakes racing for the second time after running a non-threatening fifth behind Raise Cain in the Gotham. 

His lone win came in a maiden race at Turfway Park on their Tapeta track. In two starts on dirt, he has finished fifth in both. 

It’s possible there is some room for improvement from the off-track last time, but there are too many others to prefer over him to get excited for his chances.