Rebel Stakes: Odds and analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 2, $1.25 million Rebel Stakes is the third of four stops on the Oaklawn road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers.

Going back to 2000, Rebel winners have been an elite group led by the 2015 Triple Crown winner and horse of the year American Pharoah, who had earnings of $8.65 million. From 2007 Curlin went on to be named horse of the year twice and earn $10.5 million. Will Take Charge, Lookin At Lucky, Lawyer Ron and Smarty Jones were division champions. A long list of Rebel winners also went on to become millionaire Grade 1 winners.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 11 of 12 with post time set for 6:23 p.m. EST.

1. Carbone, 10-1. Mitole – Steve Asmussen / Isaac Caastillo – 3: 2-0-0 - $173,000. Carbone won his first two starts with front-end efforts by a combined 12 lengths in a November maiden race at Churchill Downs and then a mile allowance at Oaklawn. He stepped onto the Derby trail on a muddy and sealed track in the Southwest (G3) and pressed the pace but stopped running to finish a distant seventh. Steve Asmussen has trained four winners in the Rebel. Live long shot.
2. Northern Flame, 12-1. Flameaway – Kenny McPeek / Julien Leparoux – 7: 2-0-1 - $206,075. Northern Flame broke his maiden in his third try, which came at Churchill while racing on the lead going two turns. He moved onto the Derby trail and earned 3 qualifying points after a fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a fifth in the Street Sense (G3). Northern Flame began his 2024 campaign with a hard-fought gate-to-wire victory in an allowance at Oaklawn aided by Lasix for the first time. Use underneath.
3. Common Defense, 20-1. Karakontie – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 3: 1-1-0 - $119,200. Common Defense began his career at Oaklawn winning a maiden race in his second start after a stalking trip going a mile. Trainer McPeek sent him to the Southwest, where he finished a distant fifth and picked up 2 Derby points. Toss.
4. Tejon Pass, 20-1. Justify – Peter Miller / Chris Landeros – 5: 1-1-1 - $83,770. Tejon Pass broke his maiden in his second career start at Santa Anita against a field of seven with a pace-setting effort on a track that was labelled wet fast. At Del Mar he was third in a four-horse field behind Nysos and Stronghold, the recent winner of the Sunland Park Derby (G3). Tejon Pass has two starts at Oaklawn, with a second in the six-furlong Renaissance. He was fifth in an allowance last time going a mile. Toss.

5. Magic Grant, 30-1. Good Magic – Ed Milligan Jr. / Harry Hernandez – 4: 1-0-1 - $98,085. Magic Grant made his first three starts at Remington Park. He broke his maiden in the Clever Trevor by more than four lengths at 23-1. Then went on to the Derby trail in the Springboard Mile and finished third to pick up 3 Derby points, but he is not Triple Crown-nominated. Magic Grant broke last in the Southwest and did not run a step. Toss.
6. Dimatic, 6-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 1-0-1 - $76,328. Dimatic broke his maiden in his third start by three lengths on a sloppy and sealed track at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles. Blinkers go on for the second of three Steve Asmussen runners in the Rebel field. Interesting maiden winner.
7. Timberlake, 9-5. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Cristian Torres – 5: 2-1-0 - $475,000. Timberlake is the leading money winner and only Grade 1 winner in the field. He is working sharply for his 2024 debut for Brad Cox. Last seen, Timberlake was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he raced greenly early in the race. He was the winner of the Champagne (G1) and has 16 Derby points. His last two speed figures are the best for this field of 3-year-olds. Top choice.
8. Next Level, 15-1. Vino Rosso – Keith Desormeaux / Jose Riquelme – 7: 1-2-1 - $115,100. Next Level ran in three stakes races before he broke his maiden in his fifth try at Fair Grounds with a front-end effort going two turns. He moved onto the Derby trail and finished last in the Gun Runner. At Oaklawn, Next Level was second by a head in an allowance. Trainer Keith Desormeaux won the Rebel last year with Confidence Game. Toss.
9. Lagynos, 10-1. Kantharos – Steve Asmussen / Keith Asmussen – 4: 2-0-1 - $183,160. Lagynos was a debut winner on the turf at Kentucky Downs in September. He then stretched out to two turns at Churchill, had the lead in an allowance and ended up third. Two weeks later Lagynos got that allowance victory and then joined the Derby trail in the Smarty Jones, where he set the pace and faded to sixth. Toss.
10. Mena, 20-1. Hard Spun – Steve Hobby / Francisco Arrieta – 5: 2-1-0 - $101,958. Mena ran in a maiden claimer after getting sixth in his first start and got claimed from Brad Cox at Keeneland after winning by more than 12 lengths. He came right back to take a starter allowance at Churchill by three. Mena did not appreciate the synthetic surface at Turfway Park and then changed to the Oaklawn barn of Steve Hobby. There he rallied late to miss the win by a neck in a first-level allowance. Toss.
11. Just Steel, 8-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Ramon Vasquez – 9: 2-3-1 - $430,795. Just Steel debuted in June, broke his maiden at Saratoga and then tried a pair of Grade 1 races where he set the pace and faded. Since October he finished in the top three in his last four starts, which includes three stakes. Just Steel was second in the Smarty Jones and the Southwest, giving him 15 Derby points. Hall of Fame trainer Lukas has two prior victories in the Rebel. Win contender.

12. Woodcourt, 15-1. Ransom the Moon – Cipriano Contreras / Emmanuel Esquivel – 9: 4-0-1 - $287,011. Woodcourt made his first start in the earliest juvenile races at Keeneland in April. He got his first victory in June in his second try at Ellis Park. Woodcourt got distanced in the Saratoga Special (G2) and then got an allowance victory on the turf at Churchill. He got claimed for $50,000 from an optional-claiming allowance and came back to win another allowance for the new connections at Oaklawn with a deep closing move. Toss.

13. Time for Truth, 12-1. Omaha Beach – Ron Moquett / Rafael Bejarano – 2: 1-1-0 - $98,250. Time for Truth won a maiden at first asking on the last day of 2023 and came back in February to finish second in the Ozark Stakes at Oaklawn after again setting the early pace. He will stretch out and try the Derby trail in his third start. Use undeneath.

Summary: Timberlake is the lone Grade 1 winner in the Rebel and is one of only three stakes winners in the field. He got the same speed figure from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Champagne, and that number is higher than rest of the field. Now a 3-year-old, Timberlake should be expected to make a significant jump in figures. He got an ideal spot in the starting gate, breaking from post-position 7 where he can get into a stalking position as he did when he won the Champagne.

Timberlake is the one to beat and the top choice in the Rebel. In the big field, better payouts may come by using him in the exacta with Dimatic, Just Steel and Time for Truth.