Blue Jays picks and props vs. Rays Sept. 29: Bet the over on total runs and Kikuchi's strikeout line
The Toronto Blue Jays begin their final series of the regular season Friday against the division rival Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: These teams just met last weekend and could collide again in the wild-card round. Tampa has secured the first wild card while Toronto sits in the second spot with a magic number of two. Tonight's matchup will see Yusei Kikuchi take the ball opposite Aaron Civale.
MLB oddsas of 1:51 p.m. ET on 09/29/2023.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
Best Bet: Over 7.5 runs (-118)
Toronto scored a total of six runs over its three-game set against the Yankees and all of them came in a 6-0 win last night.
The bats finally broke out, as we expected, after the Jays faced difficult assignments in Michael King and Gerrit Cole to begin the series. Facing weaker pitching, the offence showed signs of life and we believe the lineup should be able to do damage against Civale.
Tampa's deadline acquisition has added some major swing and miss since joining the Rays but he's also been hit around all month. Civale has allowed three-plus runs in all four starts and has a 5.36 ERA in nine outings with the Rays.
Toronto's offence is a bit unpredictable at the moment but, despite back-to-back shutouts to New York, the group has scored five-plus runs in six of its last nine games. The lineup is near full health and Brandon Belt, who thrives against right-handed pitching, has provided a big boost.
Tampa can hit, too, ranking fourth in runs per game this season. This modest 7.5-run total has cleared in 10 of the club's last 11 games and the team enters the night with a 117 wRC+, tied for the second-best mark in baseball. Only five teams are ahead of them in the second half.
Kukuchi is still racking up strikeouts, and we expect that to continue tonight, but he has been touched up this month (4.94 ERA) after a dominant post-all-star run.
Tampa Bay saw him over the weekend, tagging him for three runs on nine hits and also hit him hard back in May.
Key stat: The over on this total has cashed in each of Kikuchi's last seven starts.
Quick pick
Kikuchi over 5.5 strikeouts (+106): The southpaw's outings have been shorter and he's been hit harder as the season winds down, but he's generating whiffs.
In Sunday's four-inning start versus the Rays, Kikuchi still managed seven strikeouts. He punched out seven in the outing before that and has cleared this line in four of five September starts despite throwing no more than five innings in each. Kikuchi also cleared this in four straight starts before that.
He's fanning 11.79 batters per nine innings in September, his best mark of any month this season.
The Rays have a slightly above-average K rate versus lefties and Kikuchi has 21 strikeouts against them over three starts this season.
There's some added risk here since Toronto is trying to secure a playoff spot and has a rested bullpen after Chris Bassitt worked into the eighth inning last night, but this looks like good value for a pitcher who is top 15 in MLB in K rate.
