Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Offence should come alive on Saturday

The unbeaten Tampa Bay Rays’ winning streak is over, and now the Toronto Blue Jays can earn a series win on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Blue Jays, hoping to shake off an ugly start last time out in Los Angeles. His track record against Tampa is solid, but so is the Rays’ offence, so we’ve found ways to tail both sides in this one.

MLB odds as of 9:20 a.m. ET on 04/15/23.

Best Bet: Rays over 4.5 runs (-130)

One down game from the Rays’ potent offence isn’t enough for us to change course with this team.

Tampa Bay was quieted in a 6-3 loss last night while leaving six runners on base. Missed opportunities are going to happen, but the Rays’ batted ball results have been too good to ignore.

Consistent, quality contact has been the theme of this offence. Tampa paces the league in barrel rate (14.1%), which equates to the rate of batted balls with the peak combination of launch angle and exit velocity. The MLB average is 8.7%.

Friday’s game showcased a bit of misfortune for the Rays, as Yandy Diaz went 0-for-4 with a pair of balls in play that exceeded a 100-mph exit velocity (including one barrel).

And of course, that will happen sometimes. But having cleared this number in 10 of 12 games, Tampa’s body of work so far is strong enough to support this pick.

Key stat: Tampa leads the majors in team OPS (.920) and runs per game (7.4).

Quick picks

Blue Jays three-inning moneyline - tie no bet (-117): Though we do expect the Rays to have a solid day at the dish, it’s worth noting that Kikuchi has fared pretty well against them as a starter.

Dating back to 2021, Kikuchi is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in four outings against Tampa. His side has been tied or ahead at the three-inning mark in each of those games.

We aren’t sure what to expect from Rays starter Calvin Faucher, who has just three innings of experience against Toronto. But his 5.27 ERA in 27.1 career innings gives us hope that the Jays can start strong against him.

Blue Jays +2, over 7.5 runs (+102): This over has hit in 11 of the Rays’ 14 games this year, as well as in 15 of Kikuchi’s 21 starts since the beginning of last year.

We’ve written about the potency of the Rays’ offence, but the Blue Jays (averaging 5.3 runs per game) have been excellent, too.

And after Toronto’s win on Friday, why not give the home side a two-run cushion? The Jays have covered this number five times in a row, as well as 10 of 14 times overall.