Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction and odds for Monday, April 17 (Trust Gausman in Houston)

It seemed like just a slow start, but we might have to start worrying about the Houston Astros. They dropped another series over the weekend to the Rangers, and now sit at 7-9, in fourth place in the AL West. Now, they welcome the 10-6 Toronto Blue Jays to town for a three-game set. 

Toronto just welcomed the Tampa Bay Rays, who were on a historically great start, and took two of three from them over the weekend, so the Blue Jays are riding high into this matchup. Now, they get Kevin Gausman on the mound for Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Cristian Javier who, like the Astros, has had some early season struggles. 

Here are the odds for the Blue Jays and Astros in Houston. 

Kevin Gausman has been absolutely lights out in his three starts. He has only allowed three runs, all in his most recent outing where he went eight innings against Detroit and struck out 11 with no walks. Gausman is in the 86th percentile of strikeout percentage and 84th of walk percentage with a 98th percentile chase rate. His ERA is 1.35 and his FIP is 2.57, so I wouldn’t expect much regression at all. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far. 

The Houston offense has not been one of the best in baseball. They’ve clearly lost a lot without Jose Altuve at the top of the order and are 19th in team OPS. Their big addition, Jose Abreu has a .550 OPS with no home runs and only two doubles this year. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are doing their best to carry the team, but it hasn’t been enough and I think Gausman will have success tonight. 

The Blue Jays are top 10 in team OPS and Matt Chapman has the best barrel percentage of any player in baseball. He has a 1.204 OPS with three home runs and 15 RBI. The Blue Jays have the better starting pitcher and the better lineup, so I’ll take them as a road favorite even in Houston. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change