Blue Jays vs. Astros picks and odds: Bet on Gausman, Javier to limit offence in Houston

The Toronto Blue Jays kick off a tough six-game road trip beginning Monday night against the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won both series during its first homestand of the season and now faces the defending champs for three, followed by three more in the Bronx. Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays are slight road betting favourites for Monday’s series opener.

MLB odds as of 1:09 p.m. ET on 04/17/23.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-130)

The bats should do damage in this series but there’s a better chance of that happening over the next two games.

Gausman has MLB’s eighth-lowest ERA through three starts, while his counterpart Cristian Javier has been dominant at home over the last two seasons.

Toronto’s right-hander allowed three unearned runs in his first start, then threw six scoreless innings before surrendering three runs over eight frames while striking out 11 in his last outing.

The runs weren’t indicative of how dominant he was and we’re not going to discredit him for doing it against the lowly Tigers.

Gausman has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s best pitchers since 2021, compiling a 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 10.6 K/9 over 67 starts. He can limit the best of offences, which Houston is accustomed to being, though the team has been slow to start the season.

Javier, meanwhile, has enjoyed a solid yet unspectacular start to the season. That said, he loves some home cooking.

The righty had a 2.26 ERA at Minute Maid Park during his breakout in 2022. The year before that, he had a 3.03 home ERA over 59.1 innings.

Minute Maid has been a league-average park for offence over the last three seasons and with two tough pitchers going tonight, we’ll side with the under and take on a little bit of extra juice despite Houston cashing overs at a 68.8% clip.

Key stat: Javier has a career 2.57 ERA at home, holding hitters to a .173 average.

Quick picks

Astros moneyline (+105): Houston is a rare home underdog, which speaks to Gausman and the Blue Jays’ ability. It also creates great value to back a strong team that’s off to a slow start.

The Astros are 7-9, winning only one of their five series to date. They are the only team in baseball that’s under .500 with a positive run differential, though, and they’ve won two of the three games started by Javier.

Houston won 15 of his 25 starts last season, going 8-4 in his 12 home outings. Javier will be followed by a bullpen that has MLB’s third-best strikeout rate.

Blue Jays to have most hits (+108): Toronto leads the AL in hits with 156, trailing only the Phillies for the MLB lead.

Through 16 games apiece, the Jays have amassed 20 more hits than the Astros and have only been outhit in four contests.

As the road team, which gives them a chance at one more inning worth of at-bats, we like the plus-money value on the Blue Jays.