Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks: Bank on a big day for Vladdy
The Toronto Blue Jays have yet to drop a series this season — a trend they’ll look to continue with a four-game set against the Boston Red Sox starting Monday at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Toronto tangles with Nathan Eovaldi to kick off the series following a 4-2 road trip. Blue Jays hitters that can handle his elite velocity should thrive, while players with even the slightest bat-speed deficiency could be in for a long day against the flamethrower.
Here are our top Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 25.
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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks overview
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (-105)
- Bo Bichette over 0.5 runs (+115)
- Rafael Devers over 1.5 bases (+100)
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-105)
The Blue Jays’ best hitter unsurprisingly represents their best chance at doing serious damage against Boston’s top starter. Eovaldi’s greatest strength is a fastball that averages 96.7 mph, but high-velocity heaters simply aren’t an issue for Guerrero.
Since the beginning of the 2021 season, the 23-year-old has slugged .733 against pitches 96 mph or faster. That’s the best mark in the majors among batters with at least 75 plate appearances resolved on those pitches.
The second-best is Juan Soto’s .577.
While Eovaldi has a diverse repertoire beyond his heater, Guerrero doesn’t have a discernible weakness at the plate since breaking out last year. He also doesn’t have a negative run value against any pitch.
Add in the fact that Eovaldi is in the bottom 10% of the league in exit velocity and barrel rate allowed so far the season, and the recipe for hard contact — and extra bases — is clear.
Rogers Centre is also a top-10 ballpark for right-handed home run hitters. It’s especially favourable when the roof is closed, giving Guerrero a good chance to cash this prop with a single swing.
The last time Guerrero met Eovaldi, he went 2-for-2 with a walk, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have similar success Monday.
Key stat: Guerrero has two or more total bases in 10 of his 16 games this season, including each of his past four.
Quick picks
Bichette over 0.5 runs (+115): Bichette is off to a rough start, but he’s been on base six times in his past four games, including a couple of walks that might indicate his pitch recognition is coming around. The shortstop also has a strong record against Eovaldi (5-for-15 with a home run and just one strikeout), plus the benefit of Guerrero’s bat to drive him in.
Devers over 1.5 bases (+100): The Red Sox slugger has cashed this prop in nine of 16 games. Devers has a .588 career slugging percentage against Berrios with an even juicier .789 xSLG, and he doubled off him last week. Berrios has allowed lefty batters, like Devers, to hit .266/.328/.495 against him since the beginning of the 2021 season in 400 trips to the plate.
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