Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United Prediction

Dortmund have cruised to an unbeaten preseason, but faced a bunch of no-name sides. Our soccer betting picks don't think that serves them well against a Man United squad seeking redemption.

The final days of July are upon us, which means the major European leagues are just a few weeks away from returning to action. Sunday night will see Manchester United and Borussia Dortmund face off in Las Vegas as they look to wind down their preseason friendlies. 

The Red Devils will be annoyed to have lost a split-squad double-header this week, with their reserves falling to Wrexham before the first team lost 2-0 to Real Madrid. Erik ten Hag will expect better from his squad as they begin to prepare for the new Premier League season.

Dortmund is coming off a 6-0 thrashing of USL Championship side San Diego Loyal, and the Bundesliga runners-up from last season are looking to maintain their perfect preseason record. 

Let’s take a look at the soccer odds and help identify the best value in our Manchester United vs Borussia Dortmund betting picks and predictions for Sunday, July 30.

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United best odds

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United picks and predictions

You could be excused if someone told you the first four preseason results for Dortmund and came away not knowing any of the clubs they’ve beaten. Wins over Westfalia Ryhnern, Oberhausen, Rot-Weiss Erfurt, and San Diego Loyal don’t really move the needle for many folks, nor do they provide much data upon which to rely.

They’ve won those four matches by a combined score of 18-3, but 13 of their goals came in two outings. Against Oberhausen and Rot-Weiss Erfurt, they managed just one-goal victories, and both matches required goals in the final minutes to take the win. They’ve yet to face a club with talent similar to theirs, which is important as they look to move past the Jude Bellingham era. 

Manchester United will be the first true challenge for Dortmund, and the Red Devils come into this fixture having been battle-tested quite a bit this preseason. Wins over Leeds, Lyon, and Arsenal preceded the defeat to Real Madrid, and they will have their top lineup likely available and on the pitch on Sunday.

As they prepare to depart the United States this upcoming week, the Red Devils will want to head home with another big win under their belt. More importantly, ten Hag will expect to see his side rebound from their performance against Real Madrid where they often looked second-best and made a critical defensive error that led to Madrid’s first goal — which ironically enough was scored by Bellingham. 

Man United have struggled in the preseason to find a consistent goal scorer, but against a team like Dortmund that won’t be as big an issue. This match should be one where Man United can hit on the counter, turning anybody in their attack into a goal-scoring threat. 

Dortmund’s struggles at the back cost them a Bundesliga title last season, as they drew 2-2 on the final day of the campaign. They’ve barely beaten two teams this preseason that reside in the fourth tier of German football, despite fielding a very strong team in their match against Rot-Weiss Erfurt. Beating up on a USL side doesn’t convince me they’re going to be ready for a talent level they’ve not faced in more than two months. 

Ten Hag has said already this preseason that his side doesn’t do “friendlies” and that’s been reflected in how well they’ve defended. This Manchester United side tasted defeat against Madrid and is driven by a manager who despises losing twice in a row. That’s why I’ll take them to win this one outright. 

My best bet: Manchester United moneyline  (+115 at bet365)

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Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United side analysis

This will be a difficult match to bet on for many people. Depending on your location and your books, you may not even be able to find a betting line for the fixture. For those who do, you’ll find Man United the favorites on the 3-way line with a price of between +100 and +115 on average. Dortmund are second-favorites to win, with the draw the third choice. 

Manchester United lost more than the match against Real Madrid. Promising young midfielder Kobbie Mainoo was injured in the first half and flew back to England for treatment. However, the match on Sunday could see the return of Anthony Martial from injury. He would help lead an attack that has won three of their five preseason fixtures so far.

It’s been four wins in four outings for Dortmund, but they’ve not faced a top-flight domestic side since their 2-2 draw with Mainz to end the Bundesliga campaign. They needed just a win to take home the league title, but fell behind 2-0 in the opening half hour and couldn’t recover. They will be without winger Donyell Malen who injured his knee earlier this week, while American midfielder Gio Reyna injured his leg last week and will also miss out. 

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United Over/Under analysis

The betting market is expecting lots of goals. Those accustomed to playing the Over 2.5 line will be disappointed to see it juiced to -175 or higher for this one with the Under paying +135. The Over 3.5 pays +125 with the Under just as juiced in the -175 range. 

Manchester United’s performances aren’t driving those numbers. Aside from the Wrexham match with their reserves, they’ve yet to see a match top two goals this preseason. In fact, of the four matches involving their senior squad, none have even seen more than one team find the back of the net.

But when Dortmund is involved, the numbers tend to go up. Going back to last season, their last eight matches have all featured at least three goals, with five or more goals scored in all but three of those outings. Their 83 goals were second-most in Bundesliga last season, and they also conceded over a goal per outing on average. 

As with any preseason fixture, I tend to stay away from the total when it’s in flux like this. There are too many unknown variables tied to lineup changes, substitutions, and the like to get a good read pre-match on how long the top talent will remain on the pitch. 

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United game info

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United key injuries

Borussia Dortmund: Anthony Martial F (Questionable), Amad Diallo F (Questionable), Kobbie Mainoo M (Out). 
Manchester United: Nico Schlotterbeck D (Out), Gio Reyna M (Out), Marius Wolf D (Out).

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester United weather

While the temperatures outside in Las Vegas will be quite warm, conditions inside Allegiant Stadium are climate-controlled and therefore weather won’t impact play.