Boston Celtics vs OKC Thunder Odds, Player Props & Predictions (Jan. 2)

A heavyweight tilt is on the NBA schedule on Tuesday night as the league-leading Boston Celtics (26-6, 10-6 away, 16-14-2 ATS) finish off a quick two-game road trip at the OKC Thunder (22-9, 13-5 home, 22-8-1 ATS). Tip-off is set for 7:10 pm CT/8:10 pm ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

Winners of an NBA-best six straight, the Celtics are four-point road favorites on Tuesday night.

Boston Celtics vs OKC Thunder Odds

In a rare position as home underdogs, OKC is +144 on the moneyline in Tuesday’s NBA odds. The total has been set at 239.5, the highest of the six games on the NBA schedule tonight. Both teams have over/under records that skew significantly to the over: Boston is 18-14 O/U while OKC is 18-13.

Odds as of Jan. 2 at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on Celtics vs Thunder today. 

The NBA public betting splits show the public hammering the Celtics’ moneyline (93% of moneyline handle) but much more divided on the spread, where OKC is actually getting 54% of ATS handle.

OKC Takeover Second in the Western Conference

Thanks to a four-game win streak of their own – tied for second-longest in the league – the Thunder have moved into second in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind Minnesota for the #1 seed. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his ascension to true superstar status, sitting third in the league in scoring (31.2 PPG) and second in Player Efficiency Rating (31.3), trailing only reigning MVP Joel Embiid. He is currently the third-favorite in the NBA MVP odds (+588 on average).

Yet the Thunder count depth among their strengths. Second-leading scorer Jalen Williams (18.0 PPG) is the only player besides SGA who’s averaging more than 30 minutes per night, whereas all five Boston starters are averaging at least 30 MPG. Twelve different OKC players average at least 11.2 minutes per game.

OKC’s current win streak includes a dominant home win over the West-leading Timberwolves (129-106) and an equally dominant road victory over the reigning-champion Denver Nuggets (119-93), just Denver’s third home loss this season.

Concerningly, OKC is just 1-3 straight-up as a home underdog this season. Early in the season, the Thunder lost to Denver (128-95) as 3.5-point home-court underdogs, Golden State (141-139) as six-point underdogs, and Philadelphia (127-123) as one-point underdogs. Their only win as a home underdog came against Cleveland (128-120) when the Cavs were two-point road chalk.

OKC did manage to go 2-2 ATS in those four games, part of their NBA-best 22-8-1 ATS record this season.

Celtics Starters Dominating, But Logging Big Minutes

As mentioned, each member of Boston’s starting five is playing over 30 minutes per game, and they’re all making the most of their minutes. Jayson Tatum (26.9 PPG), Jaylen Brown (23.0), Kristaps Porzingis (20.0), and Derrick White (17.0) have all led the team in scoring at least once in the past eight games. Along with starting point guard Jrue Holiday (13.1 PPG), all five starters average well into double-figures.

The flip side is that Boston’s bench accounts for a league-low 26.9 PPG, and it remains to be seen how the heavy minutes affect the team over the course of an 82-game season. It looked as though fatigue may be catching up to the C’s last week when they eked out a narrow 128-122 OT win at home over the league-worst Detroit Pistons, who had lost an NBA-record 27 straight games at that point. Boston followed up with an uninspiring 120-118 home victory over the 12-19 Toronto Raptors the next night, getting outscored 31-22 in the final quarter. Boston led by as many as 20 before finding itself down 109-106 with with less than five minutes to play.

Not only does Boston own the best record in the league, they have also surpassed the 76ers for the best Net Rating (+10.4) as the Sixers struggles sans Embiid. The Thunder actually sit third in that category, though, at +8.7 and own the best point differential in the Western Conference at +8.6, which is 3.1 points better than any other team in the West.

Player Props

Player props from the DraftKings app.  

SGA has the highest over/under point total in the Celtics/Thunder props, and the second-highest total of any player in Tuesday’s NBA props. (Embiid is at 34.5 in his return to the Philadelphia lineup.) Tatum has the highest O/U for the Celtics at 26.5.

Holmgren and Porzingis both have rebound totals of 8.5, but the Boston bigman has -115 odds to go over, while the OKC rookie is +114 to grab at least nine boards.

Neither team is missing any players in Tuesday’s NBA lineups. Indeed, neither team has a single player listed on its injury report at the moment.

Celtics vs Thunder Prediction

Boston started this mini two-game road trip with a 134-101 demolition of the five-win San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, looking much more like the NBA championship favorites they are than the two games prior. Yet this is still a top-heavy team that’s forced its starters to log a ton of minutes, and it’s noticeably affected their play recently.

Against a young, talented OKC group that’s looked as dominant as any team in the league lately, I see value on the Thunder moneyline at a generous +144 price.

Celtics vs Thunder pick: OKC Thunder moneyline (+144) – two units

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 10-8-2 ATS (+1.41 units)
• 8-9 ML (-2.95 units)
• 5-11 player props (-6.6 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.