Celtics vs. Thunder prediction: NBA odds, pick, best bet Tuesday

Two of the NBA’s best face off Tuesday night as the Boston Celtics travel to Oklahoma City to battle the Thunder in inter-conference action. 

These two are a combined 46-15.

The Celts have a two-game lead on Milwaukee in the East, while the Thunder are 1.5 games back of Minnesota in the West.

The Celtics are the NBA’s best team, but they haven’t been all that good on the road. 

(8 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Oklahoma, NBC Boston, League Pass)

The Celtics are 26-6 this year but 16-0 at home. 

Away from the comfy confines of TD Garden, the Celtics are just 10-6 straight up (SU), 6-8-2 against the spread (ATS) and 5-8-2 ATS when laying points. 

They have a phenomenal +14.2 net rating in Boston, including a wild 124.2 offensive rating, both tops in the NBA.

On the road, that mark drops to +6.7. The Celts are seven points per 100 possessions worse offensively on the road. 

Playing on the road in the NBA is tough, and I often ignore home-road splits when handicapping. But Boston’s splits are so vast that I’m okay with fading the Celts whenever they jump on the bus.

That’s especially true against a Thunder team that’s 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in Oklahoma City. On offense, they’re six points per 100 possessions better at home. 

The big schematic matchup in this game is Boston’s perimeter-based offense against Oklahoma City’s perimeter defenders. 

We know Boston loves to shoot the rock, boasting the league’s highest 3-point attempt rate (43.9%). 

But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the NBA’s best two-way point guards, as his +3.7 estimated defensive plus-minus ranks second among NBA players.

He captains a defense that ranks ninth in the NBA in 3-point shooting allowed (36.2%), 11th in Open 3 Rate allowed (21%) and first in defensive turnover rate (16%). 

The Thunder can battle with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Co. on the perimeter and that should keep them in this game for 48 minutes. 

I also think Boston’s offense is a tad overrated right now.

The Celtics boast an otherworldly 127 offensive rating over the past 10 games, but they’ve played some lackluster defenses – for example, the Spurs, Pistons, Raptors and Kings. 

The Celts’ offense could fold in Oklahoma City on Tuesday night with a bump in competition and physicality on the road. 

I am a tad worried about how the Thunder offense performs. Oklahoma City is a rim-based offense, and the Celtics boast the NBA’s best rim defense (1.16 PPP allowed). 

That said, the Thunder dropped 150 points in a 33-point win when these two met up in January 2023.

In fact, the Thunder have covered five straight games against the Celtics, winning outright twice as double-digit ‘dogs.

At the minimum, the Thunder’s defense in a good matchup will exploit the Celtics’ offense, which is much weaker away from Boston. 

Our Action Network internal projections make the Celtics only two-point road favorites over the Thunder, so we’re getting solid betting value with Thunder +4 (-110) at Caesars. 

Also, Gilgeous-Alexander might be the best player on the floor Tuesday night. He’s averaging 31 points, six assists and three steals per night. He’s a guy I’m happy to bet on. 

Thunder +4.5 (-115) at BetMGM | Play to +4 (-110)