Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (66-58) and the Houston Astros (70-55) kick off a 4-game series Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Red Sox won 4-2 in 2022

The Red Sox are coming off a 3-game road sweep of the rival New York Yankees over the weekend, outscoring the Bronx Bombers 22-9 as the Over cashed in all 3 outings. Boston has won 5 of the past 7 games on the road.

The Astros were swept at home in a 3-game set over the weekend by the division rival Seattle Mariners as the defending champs were outscored 19-9. The Over connected in 2 of the 3 battles. Houston is just 2-5 in the past 7 games overall and has lost its last 4 at home.

Red Sox at Astros projected starters

LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Cristian Javier

Paxton (7-3, 3.34 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 86 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 6-2 road loss vs. Washington Nationals Wednesday
• 2023 road splits: 4-2, 3.94 ERA (48 IP, 21 ER), 8 HR, 1.15 WHIP, .220 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts

Javier (8-2, 4.49 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 122 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-5 road win vs. Miami Marlins Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 4-1, 3.19 ERA (48 IP, 17 ER), 4 HR, 1.26 WHIP, .240 OBA in 9 starts

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Red Sox at Astros odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:51 a.m. ET.

Red Sox at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Red Sox 3

It’s a bit of a leap of faith to take the ASTROS (-135) as they were swept over the weekend while the Red Sox broke out the brooms against the Yankees on the road, but Javier has been money at home with just 1 loss in 48 IP across 9 starts. The key to Javier’s success has been his ability to keep the ball in the park, and that should continue Monday.

The RED SOX +1.5 (-175) are worth a look on the run line, although it’s a rather heavy price tag.

Still, Boston arrives on the Gulf Coast with a giant bit of momentum after brooming the Bronx Bombers. As an underdog, the BoSox are 12-2 in the past 14 games on the run line, including 9 outright victories.

UNDER 9 (-115) is worth a look, as Paxton and Javier should post plenty of donuts.

The Under has cashed in 4 straight starts by the southpaw Paxton, while the Under is 3-2 in Javier’s previous 5 assignments. Despite that the Over cashed in all 3 games for the Red Sox in the Bronx, the Under is still 10-5 across their past 15 games overall.

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