Houston Astros at Miami Marlins odds and predictions

The Houston Astros (68-51) and the Miami Marlins (62-57) open a 3-game interleague series at loanDepot Park in South Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Astros vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 2 of 3 last season in Houston

The Astros racked up a pair of 11-3 victories to open a 3-game set at home against the division-rival Los Angeles Angels over the weekend. Houston was unable to complete the sweep, however, losing 2-1 in the finale Sunday. It was a rare Under result, too, as the Over is 5-2 in the last 7 games.

The Marlins trailed the New York Yankees 7-3 heading to the bottom of the 9th inning, and Miami was staring a series loss in the face. However, the Fish rallied for 5 runs in the final frame to walk it off, winning for the 4th time in 5 outings.

Astros at Marlins projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Braxton Garrett

Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 142 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 6 ER, 8 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 3 K in a 7-6 road win Tuesday vs. the Baltimore Orioles
• 2023 road splits: 5-2, 4.55 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 29 ER – 9 HR), .239 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts

Garrett (6-3, 4.08 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th overall appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 117 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 3-2 road victory Tuesday vs. the Cincinnati Reds
• 2023 home splits: 2-2, 5.40 ERA (60 IP, 36 ER – 12 HR), .284 opponent batting average (OBA) in 11 starts and 1 relief appearance

Astros at Marlins odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:46 a.m. ET.

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Astros at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Astros 4

The MARLINS (+115) are worth playing as short ‘dogs at home in the interleague series opener.

While Valdez made plenty of headlines with a no-hitter earlier this month against the Cleveland Guardians, that impressive outing came at home. In fact, most of his impressive outings have been at Minute Maid Park. On the road, Valdez sports a 4.55 ERA (vs. 2.44 at home), while allowing 9 of his 13 homers away from MMP.

The MARLINS +1.5 (-145) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance, and you just cannot fathom taking Miami straight up against Houston.

As an underdog, Miami is 5-4 on the run line in the past 9 tries, winning 4 of those games outright. That includes Sunday’s miraculous comeback against the Bronx Bombers.

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OVER 7.5 (-120) is a pretty low number given the splits for both starting pitchers.

Valdez is solid overall, but he has a 4.55 ERA and 9 HRs allowed in just 57 1/3 IP. Garrett has a 5.40 ERA in his home park across 60 IP in 11 starts and 1 relief appearance, while serving up 12 of his 15 HRs at loanDepot Park.

Go high on the total, and enjoy the low number set by the books.

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