Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions
The Boston Red Sox (72-67) and the Tampa Bay Rays (84-55) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 8-2
The Rays evened the series with a dramatic 8-6 victory in 11 innings on Tuesday, courtesy of a 3-run walk-off homer by 2B Brandon Lowe. The Red Sox had topped the Rays 7-3 in Monday’s series opener.
The Over has cashed in both games in this series, and the Red Sox are on a miraculous 17-1-1 run to the Over in their last 19 outings.
The Rays have still won just twice in the past 5 games, and the pitching staff has allowed 6 or more runs in 3 of the previous 4 contests. The Over is 3-1 in those 4 outings, too, and the Over is 11-5 in the past 16 games overall.
Red Sox at Rays projected starters
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow
Pivetta (9-7, 4.49 ERA) makes his 12th start and 34th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 112 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K in 5-4 road win vs. Washington Nationals on Aug. 15
- 2023 road splits: 3-2, 3.90 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 9 HR, .203 opponent batting average (OBA) in 5 starts and 11 relief appearances
- 2023 vs. Tampa Bay: 0-0, 1.59 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 7 K, .190 OBA in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Glasnow (7-5, 3.17 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 93 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 3-0 road loss vs. the Cleveland Guardians Friday
- 2023 home splits: 3-2, 2.98 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 5 HR, .167 OBA in 8 starts
- 2023 vs. Boston: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-2 road win on June 3
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Red Sox at Rays odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:22 a.m. ET.
Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 6, Red Sox 3
The RAYS (-165) are worth a look in the series finale as they look to take a 2nd straight game from the Red Sox.
The offense got untracked Tuesday for Tampa, and the pitching should be just fine with Glasnow on the bump. The pitching advantage has the scales tipped in favor of the home side, as Glasnow has allowed less than 3 runs per game on average so far at Tropicana Field this season.
The RAYS -1.5 (+125) are a solid value on the run line. Tampa Bay miraculously covered the run line with Lowe’s 3-run homer in the 11th inning on Tuesday. It should be able to do it the conventional way, as Pivetta has been very hittable in his recent starts. Glasnow did a good job quieting the Boston bats in his first meeting at Fenway Park in early June.
OVER 8 (-105) is the lean, mainly due to Boston’s amazing run of going high. The total has gone Over in each of the first 2 in this series, but it is also 17-1-1 in the past 19 games overall for the BoSox. Keep riding that wave until it crashes. The Over is also a healthy 11-5 in the past 16 for the Rays.
