B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 7

Some college football Saturdays just feel larger than others. This feels like one of those Saturdays.

As we begin the back half of the regular season, the intensity heats up. When it comes to Locks of the Week, we're heating up with it.

A disappointing showing in Week 6 has our current record for the year at 30-28. While we've had some tremendous Saturdays, we've also thrown in a few clunkers. Consistency is what we're after, and this card feels like it should provide that.

Before we get into this week's picks, let's dive into what went right and wrong from the previous week.

The Good: UAB (+3.5) vs. South Florida: An obscure pick delivered one of the easiest covers of the year. UAB cruised to a 56-35 win, and all is temporarily well in Birmingham. I needed more games like this one.

The Bad: Maryland (+19.5) at Ohio State: This one was hard to stomach. Maryland was in a position to win the game for a while, and the cover never felt in jeopardy. Then it fell apart. The coaching was bizarre, the play was bad, and this one still stings days later.

With that accounted for, we're onto this week's picks.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Oh, what a disaster last week was.

There is no sugarcoating it. Head coach Mario Cristobal refused to take a knee against Georgia Tech, and the end result was a viral loss that was made possible by one of the more baffling coaching blunders in recent memory.

After watching it repeatedly the last few days, it's still hard to decipher what exactly was going on. However, Miami is still the play against UNC.

The nature of Miami's loss along with a curious point spread will make North Carolina a popular pick this week. When that happens, we tend to spring in the other direction. That's precisely what we're doing here.

QB Drake Maye is obviously talented, but UNC's path to a 5-0 start has been filled with easy opponents. Assuming Miami is able to lift itself back off the floor, the Hurricanes should be able to provide enough offense to stay within the spread.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

In terms of potential football hangovers, they don't get much bigger than this.

Louisville, fresh off a massive win over Notre Dame, now heads to Pittsburgh to take on a 1-4 opponent playing its backup quarterback in a sleepy spot. Because of the high-profile nature of the Cardinals' win last week, the support for the road team is likely to be robust.

But this is a tremendous opportunity for Pitt, which will start Christian Veilleux at quarterback over Phil Jurkovec. The timing is right, and Veilleux is likely to provide a spark for a program that desperately needs it.

The expectation here is pretty simple: ugly football.

Although Louisville should win, this could look and feel like the Cardinals' 13-10 win over NC State a few weeks ago. In Louisville's second road game of the year, the Cardinals barely stay unbeaten.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Notre Dame likely won't be making an appearance in the College Football Playoff this year, although all hope is not completely lost. An ugly defeat at Louisville that featured an ugly performance from quarterback Sam Hartman—which is not something we're used to seeing—pretty much doomed the Irish.

A week later, the fighting Irish should have much easier sledding, at least offensively. The Trojans are simply a mess on that side of the ball. USC currently ranks No. 79 in scoring defense is tied for 115th in passing defense.

That defense has had the Trojans flirting with disaster the last month or so, and it nearly did them in against Arizona last week. Against a better, bigger team like Notre Dame, this just feels like a matter of time.

Another element to keep an eye on? The elements. Rain could be in the forecast, and a wet surface would only favor ND that much more.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

Although this is not the biggest game in the Pac-12 this week, don't sleep on this one. Oregon State and UCLA are playing tremendous football, and the winner of this matchup should catapult forward.

That winner should ultimately be the Beavers.

Home teams in the Pac-12 are thriving, and we have benefited from those home teams over the past few weeks. In fact, we did quite well backing Oregon State a few weeks ago against Utah. That game was over shortly after it began.

This should be a tougher challenge, as UCLA just took down Washington State last Saturday. Quarterback Dante Moore is one of the more exciting young players in the country, and the Bruins' defense has been excellent as well.

However, playing in Corvallis won't be easy. The Beavers win by more than a touchdown, and they inch closer to the AP Top 10 as a result.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

After delivering a historic season that culminated in a showing in the national championship game, the encore season has not gone as planned for TCU. The Horned Frogs are 3-3, and they just lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Iowa State. Yuck.

Despite the sluggish start, TCU feels like the play this week.

Sonny Dykes' team will head home to take on BYU, which has played well in the early part of the year. The Cougars are 4-1, and their lone loss was a competitive defeat to Kansas. (In 2023, this is actually a very good loss.)

With quarterback Chandler Morris sidelined because of an MCL injury, Josh Hoover will get the start for TCU. When thrown into action last week, the redshirt freshman played well.

While the national championship feels like a distant memory, TCU gets back on track with a victory—and cover—at home.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

UTSA (-9) vs. UAB

A week after UAB delivered the goods, we're going the other way. UTSA has not been kind to our picks this season, although that changes this week.

Utah State (+5) vs. Fresno State

Although we love this Fresno State team, this is a tricky spot after a loss. Utah State's three losses this year have come against solid teams, and it should be live here.

AIr Force (-10.5) vs. Wyoming

While Wyoming is on a roll, people are sleeping on just how well Air Force has played. This will only be the Cowboys' second road game of the year.

South Carolina vs. Florida (Over 51.5)

We haven't been great on totals this year, although we're looking to change that. While South Carolina and Florida have not been great, this game could be a ton of fun. Expect plenty of points.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.