Pitt vs. Notre Dame odds, props, predictions: Irish look to avoid trap against Panthers

Last we saw the Fighting Irish, they were running up the score on USC, hammering their previously unbeaten rival into submission through a 99-yard kickoff return and a scoop-and-score at the goal-line. 

Coming off a bye, Notre Dame (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) now faces a trap situation against Pitt (2-5, 2-5) with a trip to Clemson on deck. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. in South Bend.

As we look at Pitt vs. Notre Dame odds, props and predictions, the question is how much will that impact the game. 

Odds for Pitt vs. Notre Dame: CFB Week 9 point spread, moneyline, total 

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Panthers vs. Fighting Irish:

Early betting moved this line toward Notre Dame after it opened at 17.5. The total opened at 46.5 before being bet down.

Pitt betting breakdown

Pitt has the ACC’s worst overall record alongside Virginia and needs an upset here to keep itself off the brink of its first losing season since 2017.  

The Panthers have lost six of seven in this series, but have managed to go 4-2-1 ATS in those games. They lost at home 45-3 when these teams last played in 2020, but were much more competitive in their most recent visit to South Bend, leading deep into the fourth quarter before falling 19-14. 

Pitt demoted former Notre Dame recruit Phil Jurkovec, who was expected to be the starter for this 3:30 p.m. ET matchup, a few weeks ago.

Jurkovec is now playing tight end and has given way to Canadian redshirt sophomore Christian Veilleux, a Penn State transfer who should be a 2-0 as a starter if the officials hadn’t made an awful ruling on his slide as he tried to run out the clock in an unfortunate 21-17 loss at Wake Forest.

Pitt starting RB C’Bo Flemister and linebacker Shayne Simon are also Notre Dame transfers.

Although this season isn’t likely to end in a bowl bid, Pitt is encouraged by the work it has put in since a disheartening 38-21 loss at Virginia Tech. The Panthers benched Jurkovec after that contest, made some other tweaks, and went out and upset unbeaten Louisville on Homecoming.    

Vellieux has thrown four TD passes without an interception since being named the starter and produced the first 300-yard game of his young career against the Demon Deacons.

Senior Bub Means, who had just seven catches in the first two months of the season, has made 13 grabs for 180 yards over the last two games. He’s scored in three straight contests. Flemister, recently promoted to starter, carried 23 times for 105 yards against Wake after scoring twice against the ‘Ville.

Pitt is 1-2 straight up and against the number as a ‘dog this season, and is projected to lose by double-digits for the first time since a 52-17 loss in Nov. 2020 at Clemson.  

Notre Dame betting breakdown

Marcus Freeman brings his team out of their bye week healthy and loaded with confidence after crushing USC. He’s 2-1 with an extra week to prepare at Notre Dame, but there is concern that his team may be looking ahead to Clemson, which is, on paper, its toughest remaining challenge.

Having lost to Ohio State and Louisville, a College Football Playoff berth is out of the question for the Irish, but the team is eyeing its sixth season with double-digit wins in seven years and hopes to finish 11-2 for the third time in five campaigns.

The 20.5 points Notre Dame was favored by as of mid-week is only the fourth-largest spread it has been saddled with in 2023. The Fighting Irish handled Navy in Dublin 42-3 as a 21-point favorite, crushed Tennessee State 56-3 as a 46.5-point favorite and failed to cover in a 41-17 win over Central Michigan as a 34.5-point favorite.

This will be their first non-ranked opponent that enters the game under .500 since that Sept. 16 win over the Chippewas, so there is danger that they won’t come in as focused in a lookahead spot.

Redshirt senior QB Sam Hartman threw for just 126 yards against USC but wasn’t tasked with doing more than just running the offense due to how dominant the Irish defense performed.

He’ll lean on RB Audric Estime, who hasn’t had 100-yard game since the win over the Chippewas but leads Notre Dame with nine rushing TDs and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Pitt is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. 

Pitt vs. Notre Dame prop picks

• Pitt RB C’Bo Flemister OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-115) 
• Pitt WR Bub Means OVER 45.5 rushing yards (-114)  

The tremendous work Notre Dame put in against reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and USC may be affecting these numbers.

Although Freeman has proven he’s a heck of a defensive coach, his team is unlikely to be as locked in as they were against USC, and Flemister will be motivated to have a solid game against his former teammates.

Means has come into his own over the past few games and should get plenty of work in a PItt comeback bid.

Pitt vs. Notre Dame pick ATS

The Irish should pull away and win by double-digits, but defeating a resurgent Pitt squad by more than three touchdowns is a tall task. The Panthers have been much better of late and have had this game circled on their schedule all season.

Vellieux will look to remain productive against the best defense he’s seen in his career, while Hartman hopes to go into the Clemson game on a high since he’s thrown for just five touchdowns against three interceptions over his last four games following a prolific start.