Braves vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

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27 August 2023

Braves vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Atlanta Braves boast baseball's best offense and while we ultimately expect them to put on another powerful performance, our betting picks aren't anticipating the fireworks to start in the opening frame against the Giants.

The Atlanta Braves are out for a series sweep as they play the third and final game of their series with the San Francisco Giants on Sunday Night Baseball.

Atlanta got a solid start from Max Fried in Saturday's 7-3 win and saw its record-setting offense come through with two more deep shots. Jared Shuster will take the mound for the Braves in tonight's finale.

The Giants will turn to Tristan Beck as they hope to stay within touching distance of the National League Wild Card. They’ve now lost seven consecutive series and have won just four of their last 19 games, as they continue to slide back toward a .500 record.

This should be a fun game for fans, and we’ll help you plan out the best way to profit from it in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Giants on Sunday, August 27.

Braves vs Giants odds

Braves vs Giants predictions

The Braves have put a number on the scoreboard in the first inning of each of the first two games of this series. But we’re betting that won’t happen on Sunday night, as our best bet hits on what looks to be a value price for no runs in the first inning.

The Giants are rolling out Tristan Beck, a bullpen arm, who has alreadyfaced the Braves twice in the past 10 days. Not only did he face them, he did pretty well.

Over four innings in last weekend’s series, he faced 13 Braves hitters, including two at-bats apiece for Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna in the heart of the order, as well as at-bats against Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna, Jr.

In those 13 at-bats, Beck came away with five strikeouts, including one each against Riley and Olson and another to Sean Murphy. He also forced Acuna to ground into a double-play after allowing the only two hits he gave up across two appearances.

Beck hasn’t allowed a run in any of his three appearances over the past 10 days and has struck out eight batters across five innings during that span. He’s walked just two and allowed just two hits.

Beck’s metrics show he’s limiting hard contact, and only one of those 13 at-bats last weekend saw a Braves hitter put anything into play with an exit velocity higher than 91.3 mph. He’s got two good breaking balls with plenty of movement, ranks in the 80th percentile in both arm extension and xwOBA, and limits hitters from barreling him up.

On the other side of the equation, the Giants haven’t so much as had a hit in the first inning of this series. They’ve gone 0-for-6 with a pair of strikeouts against Spencer Strider and Fried.

Jared Shuster has an ERA of 7.00 in the first inning of his starts this season, but that’s a bit misleading. He’s allowed a first-inning run in just three of his nine starts, and two of those three came against the Nationals. One of those was in his very first start when he allowed four runs in the opening frame.

It’s been rare to get NRFI for this price with the Braves of late, and I usually stay away from it given their offensive firepower. But this is the place to play it, facing a pitcher who is confident against them and can go all-out knowing he’s likely not going to see anybody a second time.

My best bet: No runs in first inning (+120 at bet365)

Braves vs Giants same-game parlay

No runs in first inning

Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases

Braves team total Over 4.5 runs

In addition to our NRFI, we’ve got two other plays with Atlanta that will round out what we hope will be our second same-game parlay cash in two days after hitting a +750 last night!

First, we’re taking Matt Olson to rack up at least two total bases. Olson has doubled in each of the first two games of this series, and has come up with two or more total bases in each of his last three games. He’s also hitting in a park that is very home-run friendly for lefty power hitters and has gone 11 games without a dinger — his longest such stretch of the season.

Olson came close to a home run last night, with a 378-foot fly ball, and has 92.3 mph exit velo in three of his last four at-bats in the series. At plus odds, I’ll take him to drive another one into the gap or over the fence.

His success will be integral to the final piece of our SGP, as we’re taking Atlanta to score at least five runs. They’ve hit that mark in each of the first two games of the series, and have done so in 19 of their last 24 games.

One of those failures came last weekend when the Giants got more than seven scoreless innings from their bullpen. That same pen allowed six earned runs last night over 7 1/3 IP, and I expect a similar outcome here.

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Braves vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Braves opened this morning as even-money underdogs, and quickly have been bet to around -140 on the market. The Braves are favored to win by at least two runs, and the total sits at 9.5 runs.

The run line was also bet down quickly, with the Giants going from being favored to getting the run and a half at -140. As for the total, it was moved from 9.5 to a flat 10.0 at some books after lines came out.

The Braves have been on an absolute tear over the past five series, winning 12 of 15 against the Mets, Yankees, and Giants. They took two of three from the Giants at home last weekend, but lost the Sunday game and hope to avoid doing that again.

As for the Giants, it’s been a nightmare month as they’re 5-14 over their last 19 games. They desperately need to turn things around if they want to make the playoffs, and need their bats to wake up. They’ve been held to three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games.

The Braves are simply the better team overall, but Shuster is the wild card here. The Braves bullpen is rested thanks to two solid outings from Strider and Fried, and neither Joe Jimenez nor Raisel Iglesias had to pitch last night. That means the Braves may have Shuster on a tight leash should he struggle in his first start in two months.

I’m leaning on both the Braves to win and to cover the run line, but I’m staying away from the total. Shuster has shown he can pitch well, but he’s also been hit around in starts. With him having gone two months between big-league starts, there’s not much data to go off of.

We also have the bullpen game aspect from the Giants, and if one guy pitches well for a few innings it could keep the game total down as well. The safer bet would be to look for something live if you can get through the first inning or two without a run.

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Trend to know

The Under is 7-3 in Atlanta’s last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants

Braves vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Jared Shuster (4-2, 5.00 ERA): Shuster was called up by the Braves earlier this week, originally for what looked to be a long-relief option. He’s making his first start since the Reds tagged him for four runs on seven hits in less than four innings, and the past two months in Triple-A weren’t great either. He’s got a 5.77 ERA and a WHIP of 1.66 with Gwinnett this year. With a K/9 rate of just 5.0 and a BB/9 rate of 4.4 this season, Schuster might present the Giants a chance to bust out of their recent slump.

Tristan Beck (3-2, 3.34 ERA): We’ve already touched quite a bit on Beck as part of our best bet analysis, but he’s making his first start of the entire season on Sunday. His ERA in August is 4.70, up from a 0.96 mark in July. Much of that is due to a horrible outing against Tampa Bay in which he allowed 10 hits and five earned over three IP. Beck has been solid in night games and has surrendered only 38 hits and eight walks in 175 plate appearances against right-handed hitters.