Mariners vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

20 May 2023

Mariners vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds

Logan Gilbert's had a tough time navigating first innings, and it doesn't get much tougher than the top of the Braves' lineup. See why our MLB picks have the Mariners starter being roughed up early.

The Atlanta Braves look to win their three-game series with the Seattle Mariners on Saturday evening, when the two teams square off at Truist Park. Atlanta won the first game 6-2 on Friday night, as they scored five runs across the seventh and eighth inning for the comeback victory.

Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the visitors, seeking his first win in more than a month. Meanwhile, Jesse Chavez will make his first start of the season out of the Braves’ bullpen, which is expected to be relied on heavily in this game as they deal with multiple injuries in the rotation.

Fans of offense might not have to wait long in this game to see some, and we break down how that works out to your betting benefit in our MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs Braves on Saturday, April 15.

Mariners vs Braves odds

Mariners vs Braves predictions

The Mariners' Logan Gilbert has been quite good once he gets past the first inning this season. He’s allowing opposing batters to hit just .222 against him this season, and he ranks 15th among qualified starters in WHIP. His K/9 rate of 10.6 also ranks 11th among qualified starting pitchers, as he’s racked up 54 of them in 46 2/3 IP.

But the first inning has given him some problems this year. He’s averaging just under six innings per start, and by far his worst inning by the analytics is the opening frame. His ERA of 6.75 in the first inning is easily his highest of any inning, and well above his 3.91 ERA. He’s also not been at his best away from home, with his ERA shooting up to 4.28 in five road starts.

Gilbert has allowed at least two earned runs in each of his last five starts, including his no-decision outing in a 5-3 loss to Detroit last time out. He gave up a leadoff single to Zach McKinstry, who later scored on a fielder's choice. It marked the fifth time in his last seven starts that he’s failed to get to the second inning with a shutout still a possibility.

His first task on Saturday will be facing Ronald Acuna, Jr. The star outfielder is a front-runner for the National League MVP, and he’s ripping the cover off the baseball right now. According to MLB, he leads the league this season with four home runs of 440+ feet and an exit velocity of 113 mph or more — and no other hitter has more than one.

Acuna’s second in batting average and third in slugging this season, and coming into Saturday he ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velo, max exit velo, xBA, and xSLG. More importantly, he’s cut down on his strikeout rate, in the 90th percentile this season. And with the new rules in play, he’s already swiped 18 bags this season and is on pace to easily break his career high of 37.

Last night, Atlanta scored first when Acuna ripped a double and then was driven home by a Matt Olson double. The Braves’ first baseman ranks 26th in slugging among eligible hitters and is regaining his form, hitting .333 over his last five games and launching a solo blast in last night’s game.

Olson also has the lowest price for a home run of any batter in Saturday’s game, showing how worried the books are that he’s going to repeat Friday’s performance against a hard-throwing pitcher with a high flyball rate. And then you’ve got Sean Murphy hitting third, who is also putting together an MVP case for himself.

So, to recap, you’ve got a hard-throwing pitcher who can’t get out of the first inning cleanly, going against a red-hot lineup that is hammering the ball. Throw in a very tantalizing price of +215 for the Braves to put up a run in the first frame, and it’s simply too good a combination to pass up.

My best bet: Braves score run first inning - Yes (+215 at DraftKings)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Best MLB bonuses

Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now

best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Mariners vs Braves moneyline analysis

Seattle is the slight underdog here, with its price ranging anywhere from +115 to +125. But that could present some decent value. Atlanta’s going to have to rely on its bullpen to get through this game, and that could open the door for a somewhat struggling Seattle lineup. Atlanta’s pen has not been sharp lately, with an ERA of 5.10 over their last 30 IP.

Gilbert is going to have to find a way to keep the ball down if he wants to get just his second victory of the season. He’s getting a lot of strikeouts this season despite having a whiff rate in only the 47th percentile, but when he doesn’t miss the bat, he’s getting hit fairly hard. His last start against Detroit saw him give up three runs on just six hits, and he managed a season-low four strikeouts as the Tigers made solid contact all game long. He will need a strong performance to help Seattle get above .500 on the road this year.

Personally, I’m staying away from the result in this one, as there’s simply too much unknown with the Braves bullpen being relied on so heavily. If Jesse Chavez can give them a few strong innings, the Braves could take this one easily. If he can’t, it might lead to a situation where even the Braves’ red-hot bats can’t bring them back.

Mariners vs Braves Over/Under analysis

Depending on your book, you can get today’s Total at an even 9.0 and I’d gladly take the Over on that at -120.

Last night’s game saw eight runs scored, but that was with both starting pitchers performing fairly decently, and with Michael Harris throwing out a Mariner at home plate. As we mentioned above, the Braves will have to hope their bullpen can limit the damage, which is a lot to ask given they’ve allowed a BABIP of .341 over the last 10 days.

On the other side, I don’t think Gilbert’s going to enjoy himself against this Braves’ lineup. In addition to the numbers listed above, he’s getting hit hard. He ranks in the 28th percentile in average exit velo, and is facing an Atlanta lineup ranked second in that department. Even if he’s able to navigate the first portion of the lineup, he’s going to face some serious threats in Orlando Arcia — hitting .338 on the season — and Marcel Ozuna — who has a .319 average and six home runs in the month of May.

I expect we will see more runs than last night, so take the Over 9.0 in this one.

Mariners vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Logan Gilbert (1-2, 3.91 ERA): IGilbert ranks 15th among qualified starters in WHIP and 11th in K/9, with 54 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings pitched. Hitters are batting just .222 against him this season, and his xERA of 2.92 shows he’s been the recipient of a bit of bad luck.

That said, he’s allowed two or more earned runs in each of his last five starts, and he managed just four strikeouts in his last start. He’s managed to keep his home run numbers down, not allowing one in May after giving up four in the month of April. But Seattle have managed to win just three of his eight starts so far this season.

Jesse Chavez (0-0, 2.50 ERA): Chavez has made 21 relief appearances for the Braves this season, but will make his first start of the year and just his fifth since 2019. It’s unlikely Chaves will see any of the Mariners’ hitters more than once, as the Braves are expected to use the majority of their bullpen due to injuries to both Kyle Wright and Max Fried.

He hasn’t had success against Seattle in his career, posting an ERA of 5.63 in 78 1/3 IP against them. But he’s been one of Atlanta’s better relievers so far in 2022, striking out 22 batters in 18 innings with a whiff rate in the 86th percentile. He’s not allowing many hard-hit balls, and if he can give Atlanta a few good innings, it could go a long way towards the win.