Braves vs Pirates Prediction

pickdawgz.com

07 August 2023

The Atlanta Braves will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of their series on Monday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Braves are one of the best teams in the MLB, but they are coming off of a series loss over the weekend. Pittsburgh is fourth in the NL Central, but they have been very competitive over the last two weeks.

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 70-39 this season and they have won six of their last nine games. Atlanta is coming off of a series loss to the Cubs, where they lost two out of three games. Atlanta won the first game in the series, but they allowed 14 runs in Games 2 and 3. The Braves are 33-19 on the road and have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average this season. The Braves offense has scored 619 runs with a .270 batting average and a .340 on base percentage. Ronald Acuna is batting .343 with 25 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Spencer Strider, who is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 129.2 innings pitched this year.

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 50-61 this season and they have won five of their last eight games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series split with the Brewers, where they won two games and lost two games. The Pirates are 11 games below .500 this year, but they are 9-7 in their last 16 games. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .251 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 457 runs with a .235 batting average and a .311 on base percentage this year. Jack Suwinski is batting .215 with 21 home runs and 53 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Osvaldo Bido, who is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 33.0 innings pitched this season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

The Pirates have lost each of their last six games against National League opponents following a road win.
The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.
The Pirates have led after 7 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against National League opponents.
The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last seven home games against NL East opponents.
The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

The Braves have won each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as favourites against the Pirates.
The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
The Braves have led after 7 innings in each of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of the Pirates' last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates' last seven home games against NL East opponents.
Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded three or more total bases in four of his five previous home appearances against the Braves.
Bryan Reynolds has scored a run in five of the Pirates' last six home games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

Matt Olson has hit a home run in three of the Braves' last four games as favourites.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded two or more hits in each of the Braves' last eight games as favourites against NL Central opponents.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last eight games as favourites against NL Central opponents.
Spencer Strider has recorded 10+ strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games.
Matt Olson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves' last nine games as favourites.
Ozzie Albies has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last 15 games against NL Central opponents.
Spencer Strider ranks 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (208) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 26th in the league for batting average this season (.235).
The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T26th in the league for runs scored this season (457).
The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.270).
The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.340).

Pick

The Braves come into this game as a heavy favorite to get the win, but Pittsburgh has been playing better recently and does play their best baseball at home. Atlanta is starting Spencer Strider, who has allowed three earned runs in his last two starts (13 IP). Pittsburgh is starting Osvaldo Bido, who has allowed seven earned runs in his last 8.2 innings of work. Atlanta is coming off of a rare series loss, but I expect them to bounce back against the Pirates here. Take the Braves -1.5 in this matchup.