Breeders’ Cup 2023: Juvenile Fillies Turf keys and trends

We'll closely examine the winners of the last 10 Breeders' Cup races for 2-year-olds. This will include the respective winners' final preps, how the Europeans stacked up, race running styles, favorites and more.

The $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf is easier to handicap than the colts' counterpart. Betting the top three favorites generally results in on-the-board placings. In 2014 they completed the trifecta.

Since the Juvenile Fillies Turf's inception in 2008, 10 of 14 winners captured their final prep race.

It is worth noting that 12 of the 14 Juvenile Fillies Turf winners were U.S.-based.

Notes about Santa Anita

The Breeders’ Cup has been hosted by Santa Anita 10 times since 1984, seven in the last 16 years.

Santa Anita’s turf course is close to a mile at seven furlongs and 132 feet. It offers the famed, 6 1/2-furlong, downhill course, which features the only right-hand turn on an American track, a flat turf chute and the main oval.

The one-mile Juvenile Turf will be consisted over the flat oval.

The turns for route races are sharper than the main course, offering a slight advantage to inside posts.

How Santa Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. The turf has been firm all seven times that Santa Anita hosted.  

Santa Anita 2019 recap

Breeders' Cup 2019 was held at Santa Anita over a firm course. Fourteen contenders went to the post, with Daahyeh as the betting favorite.

With Manny Franco up, Sharing pressed the pace from fourth, staying about 1 1/2 to two lengths off the pacesetter. She went to the outside in the stretch, gained the lead in deep stretch and drew clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths as a 14-1 outsider.

Top betting choice Daahyeh went to the post as the tepid 7-2 favorite with William Buick in the irons. She settled in mid-pack in sixth, staying within striking distance. She split horses off the second turn and finished up nicely to place.

Second betting choice Sweet Melania also pressed the pace with Jose Ortiz aboard. The filly was prominent early and grabbed the lead with about a quarter-mile left to run. However, she couldn’t fend off Sharing and Daahyeh but was able to hold third.

Juvenile Fillies Turf at a glance, 2008-22

Division debut: 2008.

Breeders' Cup Challenge previous results

Prep races

Ten winners won their final prep.

5 Miss Grillo (G2).

2 Jessamine (G2).

3 Natalma (G1), Canada.

1 Prix Marcel Boussac (G1), France.

1 Alcibiades (G1).

1 Fillies Mile (G1), Great Britain.

1 Selima Stakes.

Santa Anita 2019

Two of the top four finishers represented the U.S.

Winner Sharing, out of 2010 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account, is a Maryland-bred and won the Selima Stakes in her final Breeders’ Cup prep.

Second-place finisher Daahyeh won the Rockfel (G2) in her final prep.

Third-place finisher Sweet Melania won the Jessamine (G2).

Fourth-place finisher Albigna triumphed in the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) in her final prep.

2023 Breeders' Cup Challenge winners

Miss Grillo (G2), Hard to Justify.

Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1), Fallen Angel.

Natalma Stakes (G1), She Feels Pretty.

Rockfel Stakes (G2), Carla’s Way.

Jessamine (G2), Buchu.

Breeders’ Cup Challenge previous results

Miss Grillo. Four winners completed the Miss Grillo and Juvenile Fillies Turf double, and four additional winners were second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Moyglare Stud. No previous winners won or hit the board in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Natalma. One winner completed the Natalma-Juvenile Fillies Turf double.

Rockfel. One winner placed second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Jessamine: Two winners completed the Jessamine-Juvenile Fillies Turf double, and four additional winners were third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Payouts

Average win payout: $16.15.

Lowest: $3.20 Newspaperofrecord, 2018.

Highest: $29.60 Sharing, 2019.

Favorite

Favorites hit the board 42 percent of the time.

Last to win: Meditate, 2022.     

Last second choice to win: Rushing Fall, 2017.

Santa Anita 2019: Long shot Sharing won.

Post positions 

The rail is the kiss of death. Since 2008 one filly won from the rail, and another placed second. The rest were sixth or worse.

Santa Anita 2019: Sharing broke from post position 11.

Winning Style as determined by position at the half-mile  

Pacesetters wired the field.

Presser-setters were within two lengths of the pacesetter.

Mid-Pack were 2-4 lengths behind the pacesetter.

Santa Anita 2019: Sharing pressed the pace from fourth.

4 undefeated.

8 had two previous starts.

2 each had three and four previous starts.

1 had five previous starts

2 had six previous starts.

Since 2008 all but one filly won or placed in her final prep. From 2013 to 2020 the Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine won her prep. Last year Meditate finished second in the Cheveley Park Stakes (G1).

Europe

Europe races are timed differently than those in the U.S. and Canada. They are timed from the gate in Europe, and track configurations vary widely.

Since 2008, Europe horses have a 64: 3-6-4 record in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Irish-trained horses have finished in the money seven of the last 11 years. 

Trainers

This is Chad Brown's world, and we are just living in it. Since the inaugural running in 2002, Brown has compiled a 23: 5-2-1 record. He dominated the Juvenile Fillies Turf between 2014 and 2018, winning three straight. Four of his eight charges who finished in the top three were either the favorite or second choice. 

Jockeys

Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Florent Geroux have won the Juvenile Fillies Turf twice each.

This year’s top contenders

By Ashley Tamulonis

Undefeated Dreamfyre resides near the top of my list for top contenders in this year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf. The daughter of Flameaway has done a bit of everything. She beat the boys in her debut, destroyed her in-division rivals in the Sorrento (G3) and successfully transitioned to turf to win the Surfer Girl (G3) over this very course. Her Brisnet Speed Rating for the Surfer Girl was just a 73, but she hasn’t failed yet.

Chad Brown’s Hard To Justify won the Miss Grillo (G2), a challenge race, in her last start with a field-best Brisnet turf speed rating of 91. That made her undefeated in two starts, and with Brown’s record in this race, the Justify filly is a must-use. Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) winner Opera Singer is another key contender. She won that race on a soft course by five lengths and also destroyed the Irish EBF Stakes (G3) field.

Cherie DeVaux’s undefeated Natalma (G1) winner She Feels Pretty is another interesting prospect. The daughter of Karakontie won that race by an easy 4 1/2 lengths with a Brisnet Speed Rating of 88.

Two more to consider are Gala Brand and Go With Gusto. Gala Brand dispatched the boys in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga this summer but put in too late a bid in her last outing in the Miss Grillo (G2). Go With Gusto has raced exclusively against the boys. She crossed the wire first in her debut but was disqualified to fifth for interference. She was then a very good third in the Summer Stakes (G1).

Lastly, Buchu has come into her own recently. She enters off two straight wins, including the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland.

By Laurie Ross

Justify is represented by three top contenders in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, including Group 1 heroine Opera Singer, Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) heroine Hard to Justify and Jessamine Stakes (G2) winner Buchu.

Aidan O’Brien’s Opera Singer crushed the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) field by five lengths and previously captured the Irish EBF (G3) by 6 1/2 lengths and has her trainer dreaming of a run at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) next year. Opera Singer has tactical speed and a devastating turn of foot. 

The Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) is a key prep when the Juvenile Fillies Turf is held at Santa Anita. This year’s heroine, Chad Brown’s Hard to Justify, is undefeated in two starts and overcame trouble in her debut. She has tactical speed, able to press or close, and earned an 89 Brisnet late-pace rating in both starts. Not the highest in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, but she did enough to get the job done.

Todd Pletcher’sLife’s an Audible made a late move in the Miss Grillo but ran out of real estate, finishing second to Hard to Justify by a half-length. Her Brisnet Speed Ratings have increased in each start.

Justify’s offspring will improve with maturity, and Buchu is an example. She graduated in her fourth start by 4 3/4 lengths and followed up with a commanding, 3 3/4-length victory in the Jessamine (G2). The Phil Bauer trainee is capable of pressing the pace or closing.

Summary

Mid-pack runners or closers have four of the five Santa Anita editions of the Juvenile Fillies Turf. 

Irish-trained horses have finished in the money seven of the last 11 years.

Some 36 percent of Chad Brown's entries have finished in the top three, and half were favored or the second choice.

Fourteen of the 15 Juvenile Filly Turf heroines won or placed in their final prep.

Pay special attention to winners of the Jessamine (G2) and Miss Grillo (G2) as they run especially well in the Breeders' Cup.