Full card picks for Breeders' Cup 2019's Friday races

"Future Stars Friday" kicks off the two-day Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita Park with first post time 1:45 p.m. ET in Arcadia, Calif, and championship action beginning at 4:12 p.m.

The card opens with a field of six contesting the 1 3/4-mile Marathon (G2) and includes the five Breeders' Cup races for 2-year olds.

The following is my handicapping and suggested wagers for the full card.

While the morning line favorite Campaign (post 5) is the most-likely winner of the opener, I’ll focus my early Friday wagering dollars on Itsinthepost, who drew the rail. The last time these two faced one other, Campaign was the winning odds-on favorite and Itsinthepost went off at 4-1 when finishing second, beaten by a length and a quarter. That race was at the end of July at Del Mar. Campaign has raced twice since then, finishing fifth two back and third last out. He’s been trending in the wrong direction. Itsinthepost has been going the opposite way and will hold value. It’s a small field, so a simple win bet on Itsinthepost is the way to go. No exotics and no early Pick 5 for me.

Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming (2:20 p.m.)

The first of two non-stakes races of the day is a wide-open affair, as the case can be made for quite a few to win. My top choice here is Heathers Grey (post 9), who enters off a winning effort. She has not failed to hit the exacta in her four last races and looks like she’ll be a nice turf miler, as she has two wins and a place in three races at a mile so far. This distance is right in her wheelhouse. I’m intrigued with Opus One (post 4) who will most likely outrun her 8-1 morning line odds. She has a chance to win, as she’s won two of her last three starts, which were all mile races on the turf. Another 8-1 morning line filly I like here is Arctic Roll (post 7). She has alternated dirt and turf for her last five starts, and it’s turf time for her again. While she is better on the main track, she could be useful here as a nice price underneath. Finally, An Eddie Surprise (post 10) is another 8-1 morning line filly worth using. She hasn’t won in her last five tries but has hit the board in six of her last seven starts.

Key 4 and 9 over 4,7,9 and 10 in exactas and box 4,7,9,10 in trifectas.

Race 3: Golden State Juvenile Fillies (2:55 p.m.)

California-breds will go seven furlongs, with Bulletproof One (post 8) cross-entered in this race and as an also-eligible in the Juvenile Turf Sprint later in the day. If she does not make the field in race 5, she will run here and is the obvious choice. Second should be decided among Choula Lips (post 9), Been Studying Her (post 11) and Warren’s Showtime (post 4). I like them in that order. Choula Lips lost last time out to Warren’s Showtime on the turf and to Been Studying Her on the dirt two back, but she will bring value here, and 2-year-olds can always improve.

Key 8 over 4,9 and 11 in exactas and trifectas.

Race 4: Golden State Juvenile (3:32 p.m.)

The male counterpart to the previous stakes will be the first one where I assemble a multi-race bet going into the Breeders’ Cup races. There are three horses I’ll be using here in the first leg of a Pick-3 that will culminate in a single of Arizona in the Juvenile Turf. The horse that I’ll be rooting for the most given his expected odds is 12-1 morning line shot Doc Tommy (post 5). He has speed and should be on or near the early lead in this seven-furlong sprint. The main track should favor speed, and I’ll try to take advantage of that in this race. Another 12-1 speedster I’ll use here is Rookie Mistake (post 10), who showed natural pace in his debut. He will come at higher odds than Doc Tommy, and I think the latter will have an easier time with the distance. The third I want to use in this race is Cali Dude (post 2), who won in gate-to-wire fashion in his debut and should be near the lead here as well.

Play a $0.50 pick 3: 2,5,10 with ALL (12 runners) with 12 ($18.00 ticket).

While I do have a top pick in the first Breeders’ Cup race of the weekend, this could be one of the most contentious races over the two days. Unless the exacta result is Four Wheel Drive (post 9) over Kimari (post 7), the exotics should pay very well in this race. I’m not much of a superfecta player, but this race may warrant that type of bet. The morning line favorite Four Wheel Drive is my top choice here. His debut was impressive, and his Grade 3 Futurity win at Belmont was even more so. A moderately priced horse that I like here is A’Ali (post 10), who has won three times in five career turf sprints overseas. The two prices I’ll be using in exotics and rooting for in the Pick 3 are Another Miracle (post 3) and Dream Shot (post 4), both 15-1 on the morning line. I’ll have to use Kimari underneath in this race, but I prefer Four Wheel Drive for the win spot.

Key 9 over 3,4,7 and 10 in exactas. Key 9 and 10 over 3,4,7,9 and 10 in trifectas. Add Band Practice (post 2) to superfecta bets, keying 9 and 10 over 2,3,4,7,9 and 10 ($12.00 for a 10 cent superfecta).

Play a $0.50 pick 5: 3,4,7,9,10 with 12 with 2,7 with 3,5,9,11 with 1,6 ($40.00 ticket).
Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (4:52 p.m.)

I absolutely love Arizona (post 12) in this race, and I’m using him as a single. I admit, however, the draw gave me some pause. However, in order to make money over the Breeders’ Cup weekend, you’ll have to take a stand somewhere. Arizona's been pitted against the best juvenile turfers in Europe and has fared well. He should not have much difficulty with the others here. The draw, while not ideal, isn't overly worrisome. The horses I like for minor awards in the Juvenile Turf include Decorated Invader (post 4), Vitalogy (post 5) and Hit the Road (post 14). Decorated Invader is a Grade 1 winner and has won on a firm turf course -- something he'll get again at Santa Anita. Hit the Road is a stakes winner on the turf at this distance and has two wins on firm turf. Vitalogy is less accomplished than the other two but nearly overcame an outside post in his final prep

Key 12 over 4,5 and 14 in exactas.
Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (5:32 p.m.)

In the Juvenile Fillies, I’m relying on two top contenders and decidedly playing against two others. I think the most likely winner is Wicked Whisper (post 7) who has all 1s on her past performances so far. She’s won gate to wire in her first two starts and earned a Grade 1 victory by 2 ¾ lengths last out. Another top contender for me is a longshot in Two Sixty (post 2). She sports two wins in four career starts and is another apt to get to the early lead in this race. She will be double digits on the board come post time and offers considerably more value than Donna Veloce (post 1). The filly on the rail has only one race under her belt, winning in impressive fashion. But she has yet to face winners, has yet to go two turns, and is stepping way up in class. She’ll be opposing graded stakes winners, multiple graded stakes winners and Grade 1 winners. I’m against her. Underneath Wicked Whisper and Two Sixty, I like Perfect Alibi (post 3) and K P Dreamin (post 8). Perfect Alibi is a multiple graded stakes winner who hasn't missed the exacta in five starts. K P Dreamin has experience over the Santa Anita track, working there since Sept. 7. Bast (post 6) is useable underneath, but I’m betting against her in the win spot as well.

Key 2 and 7 over 2,3,6,7 and 8 in exactas and trifectas.

Once again I have a top choice but will be boxing in the exacta and trifecta. I like Albigna (post 9) best. She’s only lost once in four career starts, and that was when she placed sixth but was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths in Group 1 company overseas. The winner of that race is another top European turfer bypassing the Breeders’ Cup. Albigna rebounded to win a Group 1 race of her own last out at Longchamp and is a possibility to contest the pace here. Aside from Albigna, I’m tabbing Shadn (post 3), Sharing (post 11) and Daahyeh (post 5) as my other win contenders. Shadn will have one of the top European jockeys in Jamie Spencer aboard, and the filly is a multiple group winner. Sharing is a stakes winner who likes firm turf. Daahyeh has proven class but stretches out a bit.

Box 3,5,9,11 in exactas and trifectas. Add Fair Maiden (post 10) to superfectas, keying 3,5,9 over 3,5,9,11 over 3,5,9,10,11 over 3,5,9,10,11 in superfectas ($5.40 ticket for 10 cent superfectas).

Of course, Dennis’ Moment (post 1) and Eight Rings (post 6) are the two heavyweights in an exciting matchup, with the next-most logical contender being Scabbard (post 5). I saw Dennis' Moment live when he won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his last outing on September 14 at Churchill Downs. That followed an inauspicious start to his career as he dumped jockey Robby Albarado on debut in June. But he made a huge splash winning next out in a maiden special weight race at Ellis Park, winning by a remarkable 19 ¼ lengths. He finished geared down when winning the Iroquois. Eight Rings enjoys the home field advantage, as he won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita last out and has been working there since September. While I have an affinity for Dennis’ Moment and still consider him to be the top contender for the 2020 Kentucky Derby, I’m siding with Eight Rings in this spot. I’ll get slightly better odds and have the advantage of betting a horse with winning experience over a deep Santa Anita surface. This is one of those races where only a win bet is necessary.

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (7:43 p.m.)

Threefiveindia (post 8) is the 4-1 morning line favorite in what, at first glance, is a wide-open finale. But after pouring over the past performances, I kept landing on him. Granted, it’s been a while since he’s won, but that can be said about a majority of the runners in this race. The pace looks fast, and a meltdown could be imminent with Secret Courier (post 7), Justinian (post 11) and Parsimony (post 5) all pushing things up front. Threefiveindia gets the luxury of drawing outside those rivals. He could sit quite a few lengths behind and pick them off in the stretch. Peter Miller claimed this gelding for Rockingham Ranch for $40,000 last time, and the chances of him returning to his most-recent speed figures increases with a move to this barn. Coil Me Home (post 13) is another midpack runner who may employ the same race strategy as Threefiveindia and is useable underneath with the tiring pacesetters.

Key 8 over 5,7,11 and 13 in exactas and trifectas.