Horse racing best bets for the Breeders' Cup
Friday's Breeders' Cup best bets from Mike Somich
And we made it! It’s Breeders’ Cup weekend, where we get to see the best of the best bang heads all weekend for the biggest purses in the world! Check back tomorrow for my best bets on Saturday’s card, but let’s jump right into the Friday action!
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Santa Anita, Saturday Race #8
Friday’s marquee race features a solid field of 11 two-year-olds heading to the gate with three key prep races to look at. Both #10 Muth and #3 Wine Me Up exit the local prep, the Grade 1 American Pharoh, where Wine Me Up set the pace, and Muth ran him down. That was a nice step forward for Muth whose ability to rate going two turns could be crucial today since I expect a hot pace.
The morning line favorite, #6 Locked comes out of the Breeders’ Cup Futurity, where he nipped the #1 The Wine Steward right at the line. Locked looked great at Saratoga this summer and took a nice step forward, going two turns for the first time. I prefer The Wine Steward out of the two. He was stuck on the rail in the Futurity, not an easy place to be for a young horse, and has improved in every start this season. He has tactical speed from the rail and should get a great trip in this spot.
The other main prep was in New York, where #4 Timberlake beat #8 General Partner in the weakest of the three prep races. Both horses look like they will be on or near the lead. With other speed signed on here, it will be difficult to win the race from that position. The other main contender is #2 Prince of Monaco, who is undefeated in his career but has never gone around two turns. He is bred to be more of a miler than today’s distance, so I am willing to let him beat me.
This comes down to what prep you believe is best, and, for me, that’s the American Pharoah, so I like Muth’s chances to get the job done at a nice 4-1 price.
Picks: 10-1-3-6
Bets:
$50 Win - #10
$10 Tri – 10 / 1,3,6 / 1,3,6
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Santa Anita, Friday Race #7
Historically, this has been one of the most competitive turf races, with both North American and Europeans horses winning. This year, the European contingent is not as strong as we have seen in past years, which leaves the race wide open. Of the Euros, #6 Porta Fortuna looks like the class. She has run in three straight Group 1 races after winning back-to-back Group 3 races, including the Albany at Ascot this summer. She ships over for top connections and should run a big one.
#9 Carla’s Way is the other interesting Euro, but she’s lost to Porta Fortuna and has yet to compete with Group 1 company.
Of the North American horses, #11 She Feels Pretty stands out. She is 2 for 2 in her career, including an emphatic win in the Grade 1 Natalma last time out. Her post is a negative, but the talent is there to beat this field.
I am interested in both #3 Buchu and #12 Hard to Justify from the NA contingent. Both are coming off of solid wins against strong fields and have a chance to get the job done.
With my top pick, I’m going to go with the combination of the European and North American feel. #4 Laulne was privately purchased by Madaket Stables out of three straight Group races in Europe to ship in here and compete for a Breeders’ Cup crown. She will go out for Phil D’Amato, who is the best turf trainer in California and has been very successful with these first-time European horses in stakes races. The price is right at 15-1, and she has tactical speed to be able to get the trip that she wants.
Picks: 4-11-6-9
Bets:
$25 Win #4
$1 Superfecta – 4,11 / 4,6,9,11 / 4,6,9,11 / 4,6,9,11
Spot plays:
Friday, Santa Anita Race #6 - $50 Exacta 7 / 1
Friday, Santa Anita Race #9 - $50 Win #8
