Breeders' Cup picks for Saturday races: Betting expert horse racing
The 40th annual Breeders' Cup World Championships are set for Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita Park.
Ed DeRosa, vice president for content at Horse Racing Nation, offers his betting advice for Saturday's Breeders' Cup races.
All post times are Eastern.
Dirt Mile (2:30 p.m.)
The pick:#3 Cody’s Wish will be odds on to become the first two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His previous Breeders’ Cup success coupled with his great story of being named for Cody Dorman through the Make-a-Wish Foundation is sure to attract money. He will be the shortest price of the Breeders’ Cup.
The threat: I really was looking forward to taking a big swing against Cody’s Wish with #7 Algiers, but he scratched. #6 Skippylongstocking is a horse I’ve liked for a long time, and while I think he’s definitely slower than Cody’s Wish, if the big favorite is dull then maybe Skippylongstocking gets the jump on him.
The long shot: #1 Stage Raider couldn’t get to Zozos in the Ack Ack but will be twice the price here to turn the tables on that one and others. Pace should be more honest.
The underlays: #9 National Treasure has name recognition by virtue of winning the Preakness earlier this year and his renowned trainer Bob Baffert. Those things add up to bad odds.
The approach: It’s hard for me to look past Cody’s Wish here. Mostly a race to watch and enjoy the show, but he can be singled on tickets that are against chalk elsewhere. Vertically, will look at exactas and tris with Skippy and Stage Raider.
Filly & Mare Turf (3:10 p.m.)
The pick: One of the more likely winners on the card for me is #6 Inspiral, who ships West from Europe off a pair of Group 1 wins. She has never been this far (or two turns), but by Frankel and trained by John Gosden gives me every confidence she can handle that trip here.
The threats: #1 In Italian will look to go all the way and might get a little help from the downhill start to this 10-furlong contest. Her speed is a big weapon here given our top pick's lack of experience going this distance around these turns.
The long shots: #3 With the Moonlight was 5-2 in a Grade 1 last out and ran out of gas after a long journey. Now she’s 20-1 morning line, and that’s just too much. #4 Moira exits that same race after an even wider journey. At her best she’s in contention.
The underlays: Don’t want to use any other short prices with Inspiral so going to have to let #2 Warm Heart beat me. She’s actually cutting back in distance here while facing older for the first time, and with In Italian in here think things might be too sharp for her early.
The approach: Inspiral is a heavy lean in the multi-race wagers, but definitely see opportunity vertically if we can get one of our longshots in the number. Will use the four I mentioned and press with Inspiral.
Filly & Mare Sprint (3:50 p.m.)
The Pick: This is as much a two-horse race as any I’ve seen, and we favor #7 Society as the longer morning-line price against the other chalk. The Brisnet Pace Ratings say this can be a battle from the get, and her 105 Late Pace Ratings in her last two say she’s in for the fight.
The threat: #1 Goodnight Olive won this race last year and is tough right back despite losing two of her last three. One of those came to Echo Zulu, who’d be favored in here, so that’s easy to forgive. Still, at 6-5 morning line versus 5-2 on Society, the choice is obvious.
The long shot: #5 Kirstenbosch is an interesting closer to fill out the multis, but it’s really tough to see someone other than the top two winning.
The approach: We like some prices in the Mile (next race), so from a multi-race standpoint it’s not the worst thing to use both. With these field and pool sizes, Goodnight Olive with Casa Creed is still going to pay.
Mile (4:30 p.m.)
The pick: #3 Casa Creed tried the Turf Sprint last year and was never involved. Now Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott keeps him at a mile after winning a pair of stakes at that trip this summer at Saratoga.
The threats: #10 Songline comes with a lot of buzz and is thought to be Japan’s best chance at a Breeders’ Cup win. #14 Master of the Seas just missed to Up to the Mark last out.
The long shot: #13 More Than Looks will be closing late, and while the others on here bring a deeper resume, this one cannot be dismissed based on what we’ve seen on the track to date.
The underlay: #6 Mawj is way too short at 4-1 morning line. Yes, that was an impressive return winning the QE2 at Keeneland gate to wire, but she’s just not going to get that trip against older open company, and too much development is needed to improve off that race against what these offer.
The approach: Casa Creed will be a square price to bet to win and key in the exotics with our threats and long shots. There’s no upside to betting Songline with Master of the Seas alone, so Casa Creed or More Than Looks will have to be a part of the trifecta.
Distaff (5:10 p.m.)
The pick: The worst beat I’ve ever taken in this game is when the Chad Brown trainee Dunbar Road lost by a nose to Marche Lorraine in the 2021 Distaff. Now the Brown-trained #6 Search Results shows up here after a dull effort last year, but I think the trainer has it figured out. After prepping four weeks out two years ago and 10 weeks out last year, Search Results last raced seven weeks ago in an impressive gate-to-wire score at Churchill Downs. She doesn’t need (or probably even want) the lead in this race but will look to sprint away from the field turning for home.
The threat: #9 Clariere ran terribly last out in the slop, but given the likely pace in here will have every chance to turn things out with her big closing kick.
The long shot: Search Results' uncoupled stablemate #8 Randomized is another big front-end threat and the reason we’re not higher on #4 Idiomatic. Randomized will be a square number, and while leading them all the way is a tall order, she might be able to hang around for a piece even over Idiomatic at a much bigger price.
The underlay: Randomized’s presence makes things harder for #4 Idiomatic, who has done nothing wrong in winning four straight, but three of those races were gate-to-wire and performance-wise they all earned the same figure. Development seems unlikely here, so we already know what her ceiling is and others can eclipse it at better prices.
The approach: Search Results is one of our better bets of the day, and Clairere and Randomized give us coverage in the race with a closer behind her and another in front of her.
Turf (5:50 p.m.)
The pick: #9 Mostahdaf ran two of the best races in Europe and trainer John Gosden needs no introduction (especially after picking him in the Filly & Mare Turf as well). Other Euros figure to attract money as well, so I think we’ll get the right price on this one.
The threat: When #8 Up to the Mark won the Turf Mile at Keeneland my immediate thought was, “Oh good, a takeout reducer in the Breeders’ Cup.” Not so fast! This horse’s numbers absolutely fit with the best of these, and I know the 1 ½ miles is a question, but a win here makes him Horse of the Year. I think we might get better than 5-1, too.
The long shot: #3 Gold Phoenix is a giant number here and is one of only two with a win on the Santa Anita turf. The other is frontrunner #12 Balladeer, who I’m just not sold on cutting the fractions against these. Gold Phoenix can make some noise late though.
The underlays: #11 King of Steel wheels back on two weeks rest, and that’s a tall order against this bunch going 1 ½ miles. #5 Auguste Rodin has big-time name recognition and is proven twice at this trip at the Group 1 level, but my eye prefers our top pick and at similar prices don’t want to use both.
The approach: Similar to the Filly & Mare Sprint, this is a two-hrose race for me, and I just don’t have a lot of interest in going deeper. Heavy on the 8,9 in all multi-race plays and will need one of them in the trifecta with 2, 3, 4, and/or 13.
Classic (6:40 p.m.)
The pick: #3 White Abarrio has run the best race this year when winning the Whitney in August at Saratoga. Also, that was his last race, so the layoff is a big question mark. Another big question is the 1 ¼-mile distance, but I think the price will be right to bet the horse with the fastest race this year.
The threat: #2 Zandon has had a solid, consistent career lacking that marquee win. I like that he broke through with a victory in the prep for this, and his price will be too high relative to his talent. Must use.
The long shots: #9 Senor Buscador and #7 Clapton will both be deep closers. This race has lost a lot of early zip over the past few weeks, but Saudi Crown and Arabian Knight should at least give some opportunity for a spirited tempo.
The underlays: #12 Arabian Knight does not have the performance ratings to warrant this short of a price. Yes, he is dangerous on or near the lead with Saudi Crown, but against 11 others he’s a terrible favorite.
The approach: With recent defections, White Abarrio went from potentially a $20 horse to probably less than $10. That means I’m less excited about him as a win bet but still think he offers value as a key against Arabian Knight as long as either Senor Buscador or Clapton can hit the board. Will play 2, 3, and #8 Ushba Tesoro with 7 and 9 heaviest and fold in some #10 Dreamlike, #11 Bright Future and #13 Proxy.
Turf Sprint (7:25 p.m.)
The pick: #9 Roses for Debra has some of the fastest turf sprints this year, and if you throw out her race in the bog last out at Parx, she is consistently the fastest turf sprinter in America. 12-1 would be sweet.
The threat: #7 Nobals will look to take them all the way on the front end, and in this five-furlong, one-turn contest, that’s not an impossible task. #10 Motorious is 2 for 2 going a one-turn, five furlong turf trip, albeit at Del Mar, but he has two wins on Santa Anita turf going longer.
The long shot: Our top pick is the long shot. In fact, I’d say she’s our long shot of the weekend.
The underlay: #5 Live in the Dream set a blistering pace in his American debut. I don’t expect that here but this is a deeper field, too. The price just isn’t right given his tactics and that they didn’t work against a weaker group last time.
The approach: Roses for Debra is worth a bet at her morning line price, and is a key play with 7, 10 and #12 Arzak, who ran down Live in the Dream last out. Because all four of these are non favorites, I can see spreading pretty evenly to that quartet in the multi-race wagers.
Sprint (8 p.m.)
The pick: #9 Gunite disappointed at 3-10 when trying two turns for the first time since last year’s Dirt Mile. One turn his game, and he’s never been out of the money from six starts at six furlongs with three wins. Gets the jump on favored Elite Power.
The threat: #8 Elite Power has slugged it out with Gunite on three other occasions this year, getting the better of his rival in the first two before being unable to reel him in last time. At this difference in price (Elite Power is morning-line favorite), I’ll give Gunite the nod.
The long shot: #4 Hoist the Gold broke in the back from the rail last out and still powered home with an impressive middle move. I think our top two are better, but this one could be an interesting one to use to spice up the verticals.
The underlay: #7 Speed Boat Beach getting a lot of buzz off that comeback race, and I get it, but 3-1 against this group, which among the top two include two legitimate world-class dirt sprinters, seems too light. Possible Malibu favorite but an underlay here.
The approach: With Elite Power and Speed Boat Beach here, Gunite is likely the favorite in the win pool, but Hoist the Gold feels like the one to maybe build some things around exotically given his price.
