Breeders' Cup picks 2023: Ed DeRosa's expert picks for Friday's races
The 40th annual Breeders' Cup World Championships are set for Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita Park.
Ed DeRosa, vice president for content at Horse Racing Nation, offers his betting advice for Friday's Breeders' Cup races.
All post times are Eastern.
Juvenile Turf Sprint (5 p.m.)
The pick:#2 No Nay Mets has the speed to lead this 5-furlong dash from go to whoa.
The threat:#9 Amidst Waves is undefeated in two starts at this distance and will be closing in on his uncoupled stablemate from the barn of George Weaver.
The long shot:#7 Shards looks to boost Colonial form at a big price.
The underlays: International horses have not done as well in this turf race as others on the Breeders’ Cup program, and the one-turn 5-furlong configuration of this contest could further compromise. That makes #4 Big Evs a dubious proposition.
The approach: No Nay Mets is worth a bet at his morning-line price. It’s a big swing, but a 1, 2, 7, 9, 11, 12 exacta box for $30 could pay off big.
Juvenile Fillies (5:40 p.m.)
The pick:#1 Candied ran the best prep race for this and no reason to think she can’t run at least as well here. Also totes a Brisnet late-pace rating of more than 100, which is a good indicator of further development next out among autumn 2-year-olds.
The threat:#12 Just F Y I has quite a bit of buzz to her relative to her 8-1 (morning line) odds. I don’t love the outside post but hard to fault a filly with these connections who has done nothing wrong in two starts.
The long shot: #6 Chatalas could make some noise on the front end. I expect her price to be longer than her 8-1 morning line.
The underlays:#7 Tamara is just impossible to back at 4-5 (morning line). For that to be fair, she would have to win this race more than 55.5% of the time. I don’t even think she’s the most likely winner — let alone more likely than the rest of the field combined.
The approach: Look, I’m not saying Tamara can’t win. She can but not at the rate that makes her playable. If she beats me, I’ll tip my cap, but I’m tossing her from all my multi-race plays, betting Candied to win and will look at exactas involving 6 and 12 for sure as well as 2, 5, 9 and 11. Yeah, that’s a lot of horses, but if you can figure out the right combo against an odds-on in a 13-horse field then you’re going to get paid.
Juvenile Fillies Turf (6:20 p.m.)
The pick: From against the Euros in the Juvenile Sprint to with them here, #6 Porta Fortuna is the tepid top choice on the strength of her Group 1 win last out in which she sat and kicked going 6 furlongs. A two-turn mile definitely is a different test for her, but I think she is best of these.
The threat:#11 She Feels Pretty appears well meant for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who saddled this one to a Grade 1 victory last out. That was a one-turn mile, though, so the outside post going two turns here is a new challenge, but she fits too well to dismiss.
The long shots:#5 Content upset a Group 1 last out. That was on soft ground, but who can resist this price on Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore teaming up with a Group 1 winner? #4 Laulne makes American debut for American connections after racing well in France. Sometimes American handicappers downgrade France versus Ireland/England, and that could be a mistake here.
The underlays: Honestly, there’s no one here I hate, per se. I like the ones mentioned more than others, but price is key. E.g. if Porta Fortuna ends up favored then that’s probably an opportunity on She Feels Pretty.
The approach: Really like one of the two long shots I mentioned to at least hit the trifecta, so wagering will focus on keying them with the pick and threat I mentioned.
Juvenile (7 p.m.)
The pick: No, I’m not picking #4 Timberlake “Justin” case he wins. I actually like him in this spot. A lot. Best bet of the day.
The threats: #8 General Partner will try to lead them all the way. #6 Locked faces a better group here and will have to reel in our pick.
The underlays: The Baffert trio of #2 Prince of Monaco, #3 Wine Me Up and #10 Muth all figure to be overbet.
The approach: Timberlake is a win bet at anywhere near his morning line (4-1) and a strong lean for me in all multi-race wagers. Vertically, it’s hard to imagine Baffert missing the party completely, but exactas using 4,6,8 over the other five horses not trained by Baffert (i.e. 4,6,8 over 1,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 for $21) and pressing a 4,6,8 exacta box ($6) could bear fruit. That’s $27.
Juvenile Turf (7:40 p.m.)
The pick: #2 River Tiber is the most likely favorite of the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday. This colt is stretching out to a mile (and two turns at that), but the confidence from the Aidan O’Brien camp is clear given this one has shipped to France and England for Group 1 races and now shows up here, where I definitely see him as having an edge over these.
The threat: #14 Caron’s Run marooned on the outside but will be running late. Wouldn’t want any less than 6-1, but he fits.
The long shots: #6 Stay Hot just has the maiden win to his credit, but it came at this course and distance, and Santa Anita-based horses have a flat-bet profit at the previous three Breeders’ Cups. #5 My Boy Prince is a gate-to-wire threat.
The underlays: #8 Unquestionable is Aidan O’Brien’s other in here, and Frankie Dettori up is sure to attract some money — but not mine. Bottom line is just see the other Ballydoyle inmate (River Tiber) as better.
The approach: Wouldn’t mind catching some prices on the way here and being alive to River Tiber for a nice score. I’ll bet him to win at his morning-line price and check exactas with the aforementioned 5, 6 and 14.
