Bucks vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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10 March 2024

Bucks vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The regular season is nearing the home stretch and we're still trying to figure out just how good the Bucks are. With those questions still unanswered, our NBA picks are siding with Los Angeles to give Milwaukee fits this afternoon.

A pair of NBA Finals contenders face off in a matinee game today as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Los Angeles Clippers.

These teams find themselves in an interesting spot. They’re both solidly contenders, but neither are considered favorites to beat out the top dogs in their respective conferences.

It will take both teams becoming more than the sum of their parts to beat the NBA odds and advance to the Finals, and that road begins with proving it against quality competition on a day like today.

My free NBA picks for Bucks vs. Clippers on March 10 look at the odd scheduling situation around this matchup before offering my best bet.

Bucks vs Clippers odds

Bucks vs Clippers predictions

I am starting to get the sneaking suspicion we're going to get to game 82 and everyone is still going to be wondering just how good the Milwaukee Bucks are.

They're a classic Jekyll and Hyde team, capable of incredible performances that make you believe only to be followed up by monstrous ones that make you feel foolish for putting any faith in them. Despite putting wins on the board throughout the year, their fluctuating point differential has told the tale of their inconsistencies.

They looked wobbly under Adrian Griffin, then terrible under Doc Rivers before the All-Star break, and then rattled off a series of convincing wins post-break.

Only now they’re back where they started, dropping a game to the Los Angeles Lakers without LeBron James and getting blown off the court by the Golden State Warriors by 35 points, who had just been beaten by 52 points by the Celtics themselves.

The Los Angeles Clippers have quietly had some turmoil of their own, but nothing as head-scratching as the consistent drama in Milwaukee. L.A. started the season off like gangbusters, then floundered upon adding James Harden to the mix, and then ran roughshod over the entire league for weeks.

While both teams have 41 wins, the Clippers' point differential puts them far beyond Milwaukee in terms of team quality. So why are the Clippers as high as +5.5 at home? Well, this is a back-to-back for L.A., but it’s more than that.

L.A. played just yesterday at 1 p.m. PST while today’s game is also tipping off at 12 p.m. Due to the spring forward for daylight savings, there will be just 22 hours between games played for the Clippers. That’s not typically allowed by NBA schedule-makers.

The Clippers are an older team, constantly managing different ailments. On the face of it this is as rough of a turnaround for a team like that as I can imagine. That’s why this line has seen serious movement in favor of Milwaukee.

But I think that movement is a bit off.

While the Clippers are getting screwed here, they haven't performed as poorly in back-to-backs as you might guess. L.A. is 5-5 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this year.

When these two teams played on March 4, the Bucks won 113-106 without Giannis Antetokounmpo. While obviously, the Bucks are better with the “Greek Freak” playing, because of the way his absence allowed Damian Lillard to commandeer the offense, they’re not as much better as you might think. The Bucks star duo is still very much less than the sum of its parts.

A big part of the reason the Bucks were able to win last week was that Kawhi Leonard had one of his worst shooting games of the season — going 6-for-19 from the field and 2 of 8 from three.

But I don’t think there was anything about that performance that suggests Milwaukee guarded him particularly well. He was largely being defended by Jae Crowder, who has lost more than a step as a perimeter defender. With a normal Leonard performance, the Clippers win that game on the road.

The quick turnaround is strange and can’t be ignored, but I think this line has moved far enough now that taking L.A. is the play. The Clippers are the better team, and they’ve performed well in short rest situations all season long.

My best bet: Clippers +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Bucks vs Clippers same-game parlay

Clippers +5.5Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 threes

Damian Lillard Over 2.5 threes

While the video of Giannis making eight straight threes in practice went viral, I’ve been more impressed by his shooting in live game action. Antetokounmpo’s outside shot waxes and wanes like the tides, but he’s found the best rhythm with it lately that I can ever recall.

Giannis is shooting 43.3% from deep since the beginning of February. While this is admittedly on low volume (and generally with little to no contest) he’s good for at least one per game now on most nights. He’s made at least one triple in eight of his last nine games, and I like his chances of adding one today as well.

Lillard has been inconsistent as a shooter this season, and far below his lofty standard for the most part. But something seems to have clicked for him since the All-Star break. Dame is shooting 40% from downtown in March, and just as importantly has his volume back to north of 10 attempts per game.

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Bucks vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as little as -1 point favorites over L.A., but that has ballooned to as high as -5.5 overnight.

I think the way the Clippers stars complement each other's playstyles is just much more apparent than it is for Milwaukee. Harden does an excellent job of setting up quality shots for Kawhi and Paul George, and the floor is typically well spaced.

If things break down, then Leonard, PG, or Harden are all capable of getting a quality shot in isolation. I like their chances to generate advantages against the Bucks in the halfcourt.

Milwaukee has not overly impressed on the road this season either. The Bucks are just 11-14 against the spread when favored as the road team this season.

Sunday’s total has come in between 227.5 and 228.5 but has been dropping like a stone since that time. As of this morning, it’s available as low as 222.5.

It should be little surprise this one got bet down as heavily as it did. Oddsmakers have consistently overestimated both Milwaukee and L.A.’s offense.

The Under is 18-11-1 in Clippers home games this season while the Under is 19-12-1 in Bucks road games. At the original number, the Under was worth a look but not where it’s dropped to now.