Bucs Dugout 2024 staff predictions: Will the Pirates get over the hump this year?
In 2023, the Pittsburgh Pirates saw significant improvement from mostly everyone on the roster and it resulted in a 76-86 record, marking a 14-win improvement from the year before.
Expectations for the Bucs are high coming into this season. They added several pieces to the roster in the offseason and locked in ace Mitch Keller to a five-year extension as he leads a (somewhat) improved starting rotation.
How will they fare in 2024? Here is what our staff thinks.
Jake Slebodnick
I’m not convinced the Pirates will win the World Series, but I do think they get above .500 and clinch a Wild Card spot. After all, that’s basically what they’re gunning for... right?
From last year to now, I think this year’s rotation has some promise, even if there are still some question marks. I was impressed by the signing of Martin Perez, I think Marco Gonzales will bounce back and be an underrated arm in the NL, and seeing Keller, Paul Skenes and Jared Jones round out the rotation could be exciting to watch.
One area I’m skeptical of is first base, but if it’s true that Rowdy Tellez slimmed down and is fully over his injury, I’ll be more comfortable with it as the season evolves.
If I were to make a wild prediction for this season, in terms of player performance, I would place my chips on Ke’Bryan Hayes making the NL All-Star team AND finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting.
Yeah, I’m fully riding the Hayes train.
Let’s break through, boys.
Record prediction: 89-73 (2nd NL Central; 2nd NL Wild Card)
Darren Yuvan
I’m a little less optimistic than Jake, but I do think the Buccos improve a little bit more in 2024. A healthy Oneil Cruz and another good season for Ke’Bryan Hayes combined with some punch in the outfield from Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski has me feeling good, but the big questions about the starting rotation give me pause.
There’s nothing more important than starting pitching, and it’s one of Pittsburgh’s big possible trouble areas. We’re depending on a lot to come together there, and what happens if Mitch Keller goes down for a while? That unit could be in trouble. The bullpen is talented, but are they talented enough to make up for the deficiencies with the starters, particularly if the injury bug hits? That being said, this looks to be about a .500 team to me if the rotation holds.
Record prediction: 81-81 (3rd NL Central)
Connor Williams
I hate to continue the trend of declining optimism, but I don’t see it working out this year for this group. I certainly hope that I’m wrong, but there are so many variables at play and the margin of error is so thin.
They need acceptable performances from Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, the former got booted out of a good Texas Rangers rotation last season after doing very poorly as a starter and the latter is coming off surgery to address a nerve injury and threw just 50 innings in 2023. They need two out of the trio of Contreras, Ortiz and Priester to step up and provide something real. They also need Mitch Keller to be the best version of himself, or this conversation was over before it started.
I don’t see all of that working out and I deeply worry about the lack of an acceptable plan B for the rotation in the early going if anything goes wrong. Plan B can’t be expecting Paul Skenes and Jared Jones to come save you mid-April. As talented as they are, Skenes has thrown less than eight pro-innings and Jones has a ton to work on. Rushing them out of need would be a mistake. If they have to turn to players brought in on MiLB deals with invites to camp like Wily Peralta and Chase Anderson early to fill gaps in the rotation, oh boy.
I like the bullpen, and I kind of like the starting lineup. I’m unsure about Rowdy Tellez, but I think fans will be pleasantly surprised by Edward Olivares, and the importance of a healthy Oneil Cruz to the team might be even more huge than we think. Pirates’ SS last year post-Cruz were 29th in OAA at -15, 26th in wRC+ at 69 and dead last in fWAR at -1.1.
They really need Henry Davis to be able to stick behind the plate though, lest they have to turn to 35-year-old Yasmani Grandal fresh off of two consecutive sub-replacement level seasons with the White Sox to take the majority of the reps.
This is a better group than last year, and they’ll get better as the season goes on, but the division as a whole got better and they need everything to turn up roses. It rarely ever does.
Record prediction: 76-86 (5th in the NL central)
Jaiman White
I appreciate the optimism that Jake has, and I understand Connor’s critical views of this Bucco’s squad, but I think I’m somewhere more in the middle.
I think very similarly to last year, this more than anything is going to be a fun team. The Pirates have some really good pieces on paper, and I think they will start the season really hot and fired up. The return of Oneil Cruz is going to be huge for homers going into the Allegheny, and if Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds can maintain all-star form, I think we’ll be seeing a lot of exciting baseball.
There are however still some question marks surrounding the rotation, but hopefully Paul Skenes makes the jump following Spring Training. Second base also needs to be worked out between Liover Peguero and Ji-hwan Bae, as there doesn’t seem to be a clear candidate for opening day.
As stated previously by Connor, the division has gotten better top to bottom, maybe just a little better than the Pirates have. The Jolly Roger will be flying, just not into the post-season.
Record Prediction: 79-83 (3rd in the NL Central)
Austin Bechtold
Here we go. New year, new expectations, new beliefs in how the Pirates can perform in 2024. Following a 14-win improvement a season ago, the Bucs have a chance to do damage in the National League. Specifically in the NL Central, I don’t think the division has a bonified favorite to come out on top.
Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes in the surprise of the winter, St. Louis finished below the Pirates in the standings for the first time since 1999. The Cubs are a question mark, but re-signed Cody Bellinger and have a few solid starters. The Reds might be the most talented team in the division.
The vibe around the 2024 Pirates is different. There’s excitement, with good reason.
Mitch Keller is the third key player in three years to sign a long-term extension. Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Bryan Reynolds have committed to the Pirates for the prime of their careers. Andrew McCutchen still performs at a productive level at the plate and made a significant leadership difference in the clubhouse. Leadership can be overstated, but McCutchen is still a solid contributor at the dish. It’s also a make-or-break season for Derek Shelton and Ben Cherington to prove the rebuild is over. If not, the organization is in as bad a place as many want to believe.
They’re not one of the top five teams in the NL, but could a late-season run to the Wild Card be a possibility?
A few years ago I thought this could be the breakout season with prospects like Henry Davis, Carmen Mlodzinski, Endy Rodriguez (before injury), Liover Peguero, and Quinn Priester in their first full seasons. They need another starting pitcher. An IMPACTFUL starter. Maybe I’m naïve to think they’ll sign or trade for one. I predicted 75 wins last season. They won 76. Optimistic? I’m hopeful. 80-82 wins is more realistic, but what the hell. Bring back Buctober.
Record prediction: 85-77 (2nd NL Central; 3rd NL Wild Card)
Jeremy Brener
The Pirates took a step in the right direction last year, winning 76 games instead of floating around the 60-win mark over the previous two seasons before 2023.
The Pirates didn’t do a whole lot in the offseason to improve from that mark, but they do have Oneil Cruz back, and he will make the team better. The question is, will that be enough?
It may be enough to keep the Pirates in the race for longer this summer, but the front office’s lack of moves this winter makes me believe they will do the same at the trade deadline, which is where the team needs to make a push.
Looking at the division though, second place isn’t out of the realm of possibility. The Cardinals could continue to struggle like they did last year, the Brewers could take a step back after trading Corbin Burnes, and the Cubs and Reds don’t elicit a whole lot of confidence to be No. 1 in the Central.
That being said, there are too many talented teams in the other two divisions that make it to where they are going to need to win the Central to get in the playoffs, and I think this team is still a few pieces away. Maybe another season of overperforming will convince the front office to invest further in the roster?
Record prediction: 78-84 (2nd in the NL Central)
