Bulls vs. Kings NBA expert prediction and odds for Monday, March 4 (Bet the OVER)

The Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls are both fighting for playoff position in their respective conferences, with the Kings trying to keep themselves out of the play-in tournament conversation in the West. 

Sacramento picked up a gutsy win in overtime in Minnesota its last time out, while the Bulls put up a clunker – scoring just 97 points in a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. 

There is a key trend with the total in Kings’ home games that I’m eyeing in this matchup, but there’s a lot more to this matchup than just that.

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Let’s dive into the odds, key players, injury reports and more for Monday’s contest:  

Bulls injury report

Kings injury report

Chicago Bulls

DeMar DeRozan: Prior to scoring just 12 points in his last game, DeRozan had scored 20 or more points in nine of his previous 10 matchups. The Bulls need him and Coby White to carry the offense with Zach LaVine out, and White’s recent shooting slump has put a little more pressure on DeRozan to score at a high level. DeRozan had 24 points – hitting 14-of-15 free throws – in his last game against the Kings. 

Sacramento Kings

Malik Monk: The favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year, Monk was huge in the win over Minnesota, scoring 39 points on 16-of-29 shooting from the field. A born scorer, Monk has also displayed some impressive playmaking this season, averaging 5.2 dimes per game. Since the star of February, he’s averaging 19.8 points per game and shooting 50.0 percent from the field. 

It may seem like a system play, but the OVER is my best bet in this game. 

In the Kings’ 26 home games this season, the OVER has hit 18 times, going 18-7-1. 

The reason? Sacramento’s defense. 

While you’d expect the team’s offense to make a jump at home – and it does, ranking 10th in the NBA – the team’s defense is what takes a major hit, ranking 26th in the league. 

This total is more manageable than many since Chicago plays at a slow pace, but it’s worth noting these teams combined for 238 points in Chicago earlier this season. 

Given Sacramento’s success on OVERs at home, I’ll gladly take that tonight with the total set at 227.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.