Kings vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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31 January 2024

Kings vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

It's been a bit of a struggle for Terry Rozier to kick off his Heat tenure but he did score 21 points last time out. Sacramento's defense presents a favorable matchup for the scoring guard and our NBA picks expect him to take advantage.

There's an intriguing NBA matchup taking place in South Beach on Wednesday night, where the Miami Heat are hosting the Sacramento Kings.

The Heat haven’t just cooled off, they’ve hit an ice age. Miami enters tonight’s matchup having lost seven games in a row and on top of losing, they aren't covering either. They're 0-7-1 against the spread in their last eight games and that includes four outright losses as favorites.

Despite this, the NBA odds still have Miami getting a little chalk against the visiting Kings. Sacramento has pulled out of a tailspin of its own, winning four games in a row.

Can the Heat snap their losing streak, or will the Kings win their fifth straight? I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my free NBA picks for Kings vs. Heat.

Kings vs Heat odds

Kings vs Heat predictions

The Miami Heat are (pause for dramatic effect), feeling the heat. I’ll see myself out.

Seriously, though. This seven-game losing streak is not something you'd expect from an Erik Spoelstra-coached team. This is the longest losing streak the Heat have endured since he took over as head coach in the 2008-2009 season.

The Heat have struggled at both ends of the floor during this skid, but it’s the offense that's been especially awful, ranking dead last in offensive rating over that stretch.

The Heat knew they needed to improve their shot creation, which is why they went out and traded for Terry Rozier. And while he gives Miami another reliable shooter, his Heat tenure has gotten off to a cold start.

In Rozier’s first three games with the Heat, he averaged just 8.7 points and shot 30.3% from the field. That’s just a little bit off his 21.9 points on 45.3% shooting from his time with the Hornets. You can expect some positive regression soon. In fact, we’re already starting to see it.

Rozier is coming off his best game as a member of the Heat, putting up 21 points on 8-14 shooting, including going 4-for-6 (66.7%) from 3-point range. And I think he gets another favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings enter this game at 27-18 and winners or four in a row, but somehow, they just don’t feel as explosive as they did a year ago. On top of that, while Sacramento’s defense isn’t the black hole it once was, it's still far from great.

The Kings rank 18th in defensive rating and 25th in opponent effective field goal percentage with the real problems coming on the perimeter. Sacramento doesn’t allow the most 3-point attempts per game, but a lot of them are open looks. As a result, it ranks next-to-last in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 22nd in opponent-made threes per game.

They’ve also had issues with teams with multiple scoring guards: think Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley, Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Hell, even they had trouble with TJ McConnell and Ben Mathurin. And that’s exactly what Rozier has in teammate Tyler Herro.

I’m not sure the Heat pull this one out, but Rozier and his growing confidence will certainly give them a chance.

My best bet: Terry Rozier Over 16.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)

Kings vs Heat same-game parlay

Terry Rozier Over 16.5 pointsTyler Herro Over 3.5 made threes

Malik Monk Over 10.5 points

Terry Rozier isn't the only Heat guard I like to have success in this matchup. Like many of his teammates, Tyler Herro’s output hasn’t been as great lately, but when he's scoring, it’s coming from beyond the arc. He's been lights out from 3-point range all season, hitting 40.3% of his attempts.

Over his last nine games, that number is still a very respectable 38.6% on nearly 10 attempts from deep per game. He's averaging 3.8 made threes per game over that stretch, hitting 4+ seven times in those nine games. Let’s add Over 3.5 made threes for Herro. I'll also be betting it as a single as well.

Let’s make this a shooting guard-themed SGP. The Heat’s defense has struggled during this losing streak, but they’ve had problems on the perimeter all season long, where they rank 18th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 24th in opponent-made threes per game.

That has me looking at Malik Monk’s point total of 10.5. Monk has hit a bit of a rough patch, which is why we're getting this number. He averages 14.4 points per game this season and is shooting 38.3% from three. I like him to get back on track tonight against the Heat's subpar bench.

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Kings vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this NBA matchup opened with the Heat as very slight 1-point home favorites. Now, they've seen the early action with the line moving to 1.5.

Erik Spoelstra came out and said this isn’t an Xs and Os issue for the Heat, saying the team just needs to play with more toughness — and he’s not wrong.

It’s stunning to see Miami ranking 28th in defensive rating over this seven-game losing streak. For the season, the Heat rank 13th at that end of the floor, so improvement can certainly be made.

It’s just hard to have faith in backing a team whose coach says the toughness must improve. Particularly, against a team like the Kings, who come into this game winners of four in a row and ranking seventh in effective field goal percentage.

Until the Heat can prove they can cover a spread (they haven’t since Jan. 14 vs. the Hornets), I'd lean toward the underdogs here.

When it comes to the total, that opened at 230.5 and has been bet up to 232 as of Wednesday afternoon — movement I tend to agree with. Both teams have their issues defensively and have the weapons needed to attack those weaknesses.