Bulls vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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04 March 2024

Bulls vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

De'Aaron Fox's season has featured a plethora of highs and lows, but he finds himself playing well at the moment and there's no reason that shouldn't continue against the Bulls. Read more in our NBA picks below.

While they surely both had larger ambitions coming into the season, the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings both find themselves deep in the throes of the play-in race. While Chicago has little chance of making it into a guaranteed playoff spot, the Kings are currently holding onto one by a thread.

A home loss to the Bulls would be a body blow to Sacramento’s chances of staying in the Top 6. They desperately need a win, but the Kings have also floundered when playing some of the NBA’s other below-.500 teams.

The NBA odds favor the home team on Monday, March 4, but with my NBA picks and predictions for Bulls vs. Kings I’m looking elsewhere for value.

Bulls vs Kings odds

Bulls vs Kings predictions

De’Aaron Fox’s season has directly mirrored that of the Sacramento Kings overall in that he has had a year full of peaks and valleys.

Fox started the season hot, particularly from three, and seemed a strong candidate for All-Star and All-NBA honors. He then cooled off significantly and the team had to rely more on Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk for scoring juice.

Fox has ramped it up again recently, however. He’s averaging 26 points per game over his last 10 and 31.6 over his last five. His 3-point shot has not been falling as it once was, but he’s shown a renewed explosion and aggression getting to the basket.

The Chicago Bulls play some of the more plodding bigs in the Association. With Fox’s first step looking right, he should have no problem beating his man and the help to thrive inside the lane on Monday.

Fox is technically listed as questionable for today’s action after missing the two previous games, but he was a full participant in Sacramento’s practice on Sunday. It would be a genuine shock if he doesn’t suit up.

These De’Aaron Fox odds coming in well below his season average seem to be a vote of confidence in the defensive prowess of Alex Caruso. However, Caruso is listed as questionable himself.

Caruso tweaked his hamstring about a week ago causing him to miss the Bulls game on Wednesday. While he returned to action against Milwaukee on Friday, he’s back on the injury report for the same hamstring issue.

Caruso has been banged up off and on all season long. If he were to suffer a muscle strain that sidelines him for the final weeks of the regular season, it could end the Bulls' already dim play-in tournament hopes. I would guess the Bulls err on the side of caution.

If he does suit up, I still think this version of Fox will prove too much for him. Fox tallied 41 points on 13-24 from the field against the Bulls in their previous game with Caruso available.

My best bet: De'Aaron Fox Over 24.5 points (-110 at bet365)

Bulls vs Kings same-game parlay

De'Aaron Fox Over 24.5 points

De'Aaron Fox Over 4.5 rebounds

Over 227.5

That extra spring in Fox’s step of late isn’t just translating to scoring. While Sabonis is the premier rebounder on the team (and indeed in the entire league), De’Aaron has been doing more work on the glass over the last several games.

The benefits are obvious enough. Fox grabbing a defensive board keys the Kings' fast break in a way a Sabonis rebound rarely can and Fox following his own miss on the offensive glass usually sees him get a good luck at the rim or a drawn foul. He's averaging 7.2 rebounds over his last five games and he had at least five in each.

As for the total, I’m taking the Over at 227.5. No other team has played in more Overs at home this season than the Kings. The Over is 18-7-1 in Sacramento’s home games, for a rate of 72%.

So much of that is because they're a team that relies on strong perimeter shooting to buoy the rest of their offense and their non-star players shoot better close to home. They shoot almost 3% better from downtown in their own barn, which makes me bullish on them cashing another Over on Monday.

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Bulls vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

Sacramento opened as high as -7.5 point favorites for Monday’s tilt against Chicago, which has fallen to -6.5 at most sportsbooks. Neither of these teams’ recent records are inspiring. Both are 5-5 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in their last 10.

After having a dominant homecourt advantage a year ago, the Kings have not been nearly as effective at the Golden 1 Center this season. Sacramento is just 11-15 ATS at home in their last 26.

The Kings do have recent wins over the Nuggets, Clippers, and Timberwolves but then drop winnable ones to inferior competition. Sacrament has a -2.6 point differential over the last two weeks and a hair negative on the season overall.

The Bulls haven’t managed to break through this season and have spent much of the year 3-4 games below .500, but they also aren’t letting go of the rope in the play-in chase either and have gone 17-14 ATS following a loss.

The total opened at 229.5 and that’s dropped two points to 227.5 at most books. Getting those two points is another reason I like the Over.

A year ago, the Kings had the most efficient offense in NBA history. This year, they’re merely average, but the Kings' offense didn’t get much materially worse outside of a normalization of their injury luck, it’s just that other offenses got way better.

With the team healthy and Fox and Sabonis both playing to their capabilities, it should be difficult for the Bulls' defense to slow down.