Bundesliga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for August 18-20

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for August 18-20

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his August 18-20 Bundesliga match predictions including Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim vs Freiburg. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Asian Handicap: Bayern Munich -1.75 | Total: 3.75

We were able to get a glimpse of Harry Kane in the Bayern uniform last weekend as Bayern opened their season with a Super Cup loss to RB Leipzig by the final score of 0-3. A rare loss in which Bayern failed to find the net.

That normally isn’t the case for the Bavarian giants and is usually the one thing you don’t have to worry about with this team.

Last season, Bayern scored in all but one Bundesliga match, 33 of 34, so it is certainly a rarity for them, but perhaps we can give them a reprieve with the ole Harry Kane distraction going on.

It is worth noting that Bayern lost Sadio Mane this offseason to the Saudi League and that’s a big reason they brought in the ex-Spur who said himself that it will take a little time to adapt to the league and the team as he has only ever known Tottenham and the Premier League.

The concern though for them has been their defense and it was a big reason why they nearly lost the Bundesliga title for the first time in 11 years as the season came down to the final matchday and they needed help on that final day to win.

They conceded 38 goals which was still tops in the league, but it was also the 2nd highest tally over those last 11 championship seasons. On the road they allowed 21 of those goals and were only able to keep four clean sheets.

Bayern didn’t make any offseason moves to help address their backline either. Werder Bremen are not a good team by any means, but they do find a way to get on the scoresheet more often than not. They were held scoreless on only six occasions last year including scoring in both matches vs Bayern.

Bremen had the 2nd highest Over-Under 2.5 record last season at 23-11 while Bayern came in at 22-12. BTTS records saw Bremen at 24-10 Yes-No and Bayern at 22-12. Seven of the last ten meetings between these sides have seen both situations came through including each of the last three.

Prediction: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

Asian Handicap: Hoffenheim -0.25 | Total: 2.75

This is a series that Freiburg has dominated in recent years. Over the last four seasons these teams have met nine times, eight in Bundesliga play and one Cup match, and Hoffenheim has just one win which came on the road in 2021. Freiburg won at home last season and the teams played to a draw in Hoffenheim.

A quick look at last year’s table shows Freiburg just missing out on the Champions League, finishing 5th on 59 points while Hoffenheim finished 12th on just 36 points. While that 23-point gap between the teams is a lot, I would caution it’s not as much as it seems.

Actual goal differential last season showed Freiburg at +7 while Hoffenheim was -9. xG data showed them even closer as Freiburg had a +0.02 xG differential while Hoffenheim finished at -0.16.

Over the course of the season, a couple breaks or bounces of the ball here or there could have easily seen these teams finish within just a few points on one another. But I do see this as a good opportunity to grab the head start on Freiburg on, at the very least, two evenly matched teams.

Hoffenheim was the worst team in the Bundesliga against the spread last year going 11-21-2 including 5-10-1 while in the favorite role, while Freiburg had the 2nd best ATS record at 20-13-2.

During the summer, Hoffenheim lost Christoph Baumgartner to RB Leipzig who was a very good attacking midfielder that played in all but one match for Hoffenheim last season and scored seven goals.

For Freiburg, their starting keeper, Mark Flekken, has moved on to the EPL to play for Brentford so they have a new man between the pipes in Florian Muller from Stuttgart.

The biggest challenge for Freiburg this season is that they qualified for Europa League football and they are not a team that has a deep roster. Juggling both competitions could be a problem for this side once the group stage begins and the longer they stay in the competition.

So, the time to take Freiburg is now. They know it will be difficult playing in both competitions, so I expect a focused effort to get points over these first several weeks prior to UEFA kicking off their season.

Prediction: Freiburg +0.25 -120

Asian Handicap: Union Berlin -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Union go as their defense goes. They allowed the joint-fewest goals last season at just 38 and for a team finishing in a Champions League position, their 51 goals were paltry compared to the 92, 83 and 64 of the other three UCL sides.

In fact, 51 goals was better than only seven teams in the Bundesliga. Union Berlin qualified for the Champions League this season which is a huge achievement for them, and they made sure to try and bolster their squad during the offseason to be ready.

They added Robin Gosens in midfield from Inter Milan, Diogo Leite a centre-back from Porto, Lucas Tousart, a defensive midfielder from Hertha Berlin and a couple of attacking options in Mikkell Kaufmann from Copenhagen and Benedict Hollerbach from Wehen Wiesbaden in Bundesliga 2.

While none of those names jump off that page at you, they are clearly trying to add depth as they will be juggling both Bundesliga and Champions League duties. Much like Freiburg, they don’t, or at least, didn’t, have the depth to handle both competitions, so they may struggle to repeat last year as the season progresses.

Mainz struggled offensively for much of the season and if it wasn’t for a 10-match unbeaten run in the second half of the season that saw them score 22 goals vs conceding just nine, they would been much lower in the table.

In their other 24 matches, they scored a total of 32 goals and that spells trouble against Union’s defense. In fact, Union did a great job against Mainz last season holding the visitors to just one goal over their two matches played.

Between both matches last season, xG showed a total of only 3.02 xG combined. I would not be surprised to see another meeting between these teams without many quality chances either way.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -130

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