Burnley vs Chelsea prediction, odds and betting tips

On Saturday, Chelsea are seeking a third win on the bounce in all competitions for the first time since March.

Burnley vs Chelsea odds

⚡ Quick Burnley - Chelsea tips

• Chelsea to win - 7/10 with bet365
• Over 2.5 goals - 4/5 with bet365
• Cole Palmer to score any time - 3/1 with bet365

Burnley vs Chelsea predictions

Mauricio Pochettino has bought himself some breathing space.

Chelsea’s 1-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion in the EFL Cup last midweek was followed by a 2-0 defeat of Fulham in the Premier League on Monday night.

Back-to-back wins and clean sheets have lifted the mood at Stamford Bridge. There is plenty of work still to be done, of course, and it is too early to say that Chelsea have turned a corner. But success at Turf Moor would be the perfect way to head into the October international break.

Chelsea could do with another three points too. That is not just because they are still in the bottom half of the table despite that triumph at Craven Cottage.

The fixture list after the upcoming pause for Euro 2024 qualifiers is daunting. Chelsea are due to face Arsenal, Brentford, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester United before December 7. That is seven of last season’s top eight.

Who knows, Chelsea may rise to the occasion and pick up some solid results during that period. More likely, though, is that there will be some difficult moments for this young team. It is not overly pessimistic to say that the Blues could be in mid-table at Christmas.

That is why games like this one on Saturday are so important. Chelsea really need to start building some momentum and a third victory in succession would go some way to doing that.

📝 Burnley vs Chelsea betting tips

Burnley were victorious last time out but they will struggle to pick up a positive result against Chelsea this weekend.

Chelsea to win - 7/10 (bet365)

As any Chelsea fan will point out (and with good reason), their team has been a little unfortunate so far this season.

The underlying metrics, chiefly expected goals (xG), suggest they should probably have more points to their name than they do. 

Based on the quality of chances created minus the quality of chances conceded, the Blues rank fourth in the Premier League.

Needless to say, xG does not tell the full story. But anyone who has regularly watched Chelsea play this term will have been able to see how wasteful they have been in front of goal.

If Pochettino’s players - particularly the attacking ones - can become more ruthless, Chelsea should climb up the table.

There were positive signs against Fulham on Monday and a trip to Burnley represents a reasonably kind fixture for Chelsea to follow up on the west London derby.

The Clarets won at Luton Town on Tuesday but their four home games to date have all ended in defeat, with an aggregate scoreline of 3-12.

Pochettino’s team can get the job done at Turf Moor, provided they are less profligate in and around the 18-yard box.

Over 2.5 goals - 4/5 (bet365)

Any manager at any level in the game will say that he would be more worried with a side that does not create chances than one that struggles to convert them.

Both elements are essential, of course, but the theory holds that a poor spell in front of goal is only likely to be temporary as long as the team in question continues to fashion opportunities.

Chelsea will hope that proves to be the case. No team in the Premier League has underperformed their xG to such an extent.

Chelsea’s cumulative xG is 13.2, but they have only put the ball in the back of the net seven times so far. That gap is bound to close at some point.

Burnley, for their part, have looked a little naive in some of their matches so far this season.

Vincent Kompany’s men dominated possession in the Championship and therefore spent less time defending. This time around, they have been far too easy to play against without the ball.

Only Sheffield United (19) have conceded more goals than Burnley (16), who are still waiting for their first clean sheet of 2023/24.

Goals are on the cards in this one.

Cole Palmer to score any time - 3/1 (bet365)

Eyebrows were raised when Chelsea agreed to pay an initial £40m for Cole Palmer, a player with just 18 Premier League appearances to his name before this season.

Only time will tell whether Chelsea or Manchester City got the better deal, but the 21-year-old looked bright on his first start against Fulham on Monday.

Palmer could drop out of the XI here, with Raheem Sterling hoping to be available after illness.

At the same time Pochettino may keep faith with the former City starlet, either on the right in place of Sterling or the left in place of Mykhailo Mudryk, who picked up a knock at Craven Cottage.

Given the odds available, it could be worth a wager on Palmer opening his account for Chelsea at Turf Moor.

Burnley have had difficulties defending transitions, which is exactly the type of situation Palmer looks primed to exploit.

📺 How to watch Burnley vs Chelsea

• Location: Turf Moor, Burnley, England.
• Date and time: Saturday 7 October 2023, 3pm.
• How to watch: Not being shown live in the UK.

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