Cameron Happ's horses to follow and forgive out of Derby Day
Munhamek (GB) on the way to the barriers prior to the running of the The Damien Oliver at Flemington Racecourse on November 04, 2023 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Tough day for black bookers on grand final day but I've found a few that still have target races late in the spring or later this week.
The track was perfect as expected with the lead-up weather. Some wanted to suggest a pattern of being up on pace along the rails but when tempo allowed horses like Zardozi and Atishu were able to rattle off fast splits out wide, and in the straight races no one wanted to go anywhere near the inside section. Upgraded to a Good 3 after race seven, it's always an advantage to be closer when summer tracks get firm and that's what we are going to have all week.
Bookmakers were dominant on day one with Riff Rocket the only outright favourite to salute in the feature. It started early with Kaizad at double figures in the Carbine Club and he was one of five double figure winners on the card including three legs of the quaddie for a monster dividend of $19,430.00.
BLACK BOOKERS
HEMAN. This Peter and Paul Snowden-trained colt may only be the winner of a maiden, but he showed in the Carbine Club that he's up to this grade and you can make the argument he should have won. No speed to be back beyond midfield, but Mark Zahra had him close enough on the home turn. With a wall in front of him, he just had to be patient 450-350m as the rest kicked for home, before closing hard to only be beaten half a length. Loving his races spaced, the Sandown Guineas looks ideal in four weeks' time.
We're away in the 2023 Melbourne Cup Carnival & it's Kaizad who salutes for @GaiWaterhouse1 ???? pic.twitter.com/JSOtVLwnKM
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 4, 2023
CROSSHAVEN. Team Hayes have clearly aimed this Smart Missile gelding at the last few weeks of the Spring Carnival when most of the big names are on the decline. Despite having nearly half his career starts on his home track at Flemington, this was his first go up the straight six and ridden quiet in the pack, well off the tear away leader, he's charged home in meeting best splits of 33.12, 22.31 and 11.62. Better over slightly longer, there's a couple of nice targets over the next month and into the summer.
AETHELFLAED. While the Oaks is shaping as a good race, there's no super star like there is some seasons so looking a strong staying test, I think this Mathew Smith trained filly can be a big player. Only in her first prep, she's got better and better as she's risen in trip and going a long way back on Saturday, she did as well as could be expected running a race best last 200m split to get into fourth. Bred to be a pure stayer and racing the same way, if she can draw a gate and be a bit closer, she's got claims at a price.
MUNHAMEK. Super and luckless return from this Nick Ryan trained eight-year-old. First-up since a successful Queensland winter campaign, he got an amazing steer from Blake Shinn before it went wrong in the straight. From barrier sixteen, Shinn snagged him straight back to last and passing the 1000m mark he had the horse midfield along the rails in a perfect spot before not seeing daylight from the 400-100m. Little doubt with clear air he wins but this will be a perfect trial for a couple of features over the next four weeks.
The inaugural Group 2 Damien Oliver (previously the Linlithgow Stakes) is won by CAUSE FOR CONCERN!
What a fitting victory as we celebrate our champion jockey in his last @MelbourneCup Carnival #DerbyDay
— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 4, 2023
AYRTON. He's not going to reach the heights he promised early on in his career, but the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr trained gelding is racing right at the peak of his powers. Ridden ice-cold from the wide gate and keen on heels early on, Mark Zahra found himself still back last at the 400m. Building through his gears, he's stormed home in the third best last 400m split of the meeting and only 0.02 off the best last 200m to be beaten 1.6 lengths. The WFA Kevin Heffernan Stakes in four weeks' time looks ideal.
ATISHU. The query will be the quick back-up but if she was to have a great week, how are they going to beat this Chris Waller trained mare in the 2000m Matriarch Stakes next weekend. Giving away an enormous start all the way to the home turn in a brutally run race, she's the only one that was able to set out after the winner, making up over five lengths over the last 200m. Crying out for her best distance, she can repeat what she did at last years carnival when dominant on the last day.
FORGIVE AND LUCKLESS RUNNERS
GARZA BLANCA. Slow away at her first run up the Flemington straight, she's done a good job to get within 2.5 lengths as she's also pulled up lame. She can bounce back hard into an easier race.
VILANA. This didn't go to script with Damien Oliver getting trapped out four deep exposed in the race named in his honour. To only be beaten a length under the big weight was a huge effort and only second-up, he looks ready to peak.
HOPE IN YOUR HEART. A long way back off the tear away winner, the Kerry Parker trained mare never really got a crack at them. Tim Clark was keen to get wider on the track, but he was trapped between runners and went to the line basically untested.
“FORTUNE FAVOURS THE BRAVE!”
Declan Bates & Pride Of Jenni went hard early & held on late for a famous win ????
@cmaherracing@decbatespic.twitter.com/BgRXSrZHmw— Racing.com (@Racing) November 4, 2023
BARBIE'S FOX. A distant last for a mare that rarely runs a bad race, she pulled up with cardiac arrythmia for a complete forgive effort.
LEXUS ARCHER STAKES BACK MARKERS. Anything that wasn't in the lead/quinella pair is a total forget as it was a horrible sit and sprint home. No shock to see improvers out of this race.
FORGET
ROSE QUARTZ. She may have had an excuse as she wasn't happy exposed solo along the rails but she's just not a betting proposition having not won in twenty months and always going off short.
RED CARD. She did pull up lame yesterday but how did she go off single figures in the form she's been in. Hopefully she spells to save punters some money.
