Canada vs Australia Predictions & Odds

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30 July 2023

Both Canada and Australia are making their last grasps at advancing to the knockout stage. But while Australia need a win, Canada can push through with a draw. See how this informs our betting picks below.

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Only a win will do for Australia as they take on Canada in their final Group B contest on Monday — but that task is a little less daunting with captain Sam Kerr expected to be available.

The Australians seemed to be on track for the knockout rounds after grinding out a 1-0 victory in their opening game and then taking the lead against Nigeria on Thursday. But the Nigerians’ comeback win turned the group standings on their head, leaving the Matildas on the brink of a shock exit.

That has cranked up the daily spotlight on Kerr, who missed Australia’s first two games with a calf injury. In her own words, she’s “definitely going to be available” with her team’s World Cup hopes on the line.

With all the attention on the co-hosts, it’s easy to forget that Canada also need a result (a draw is good enough), despite a gritty 2-1 victory over the Republic of Ireland in midweek. Bev Priestman has some tough selection choices to make after her substitutes made the difference against the Irish.

Find out more in our free Canada vs Australia picks and predictions for this high-stakes July 31 showdown.

Canada vs Australia odds

Canada vs Australia picks and predictions

Despite Group B being dubbed the Group of Death, it’s raised plenty of eyebrows that Canada and Australia are squaring off here with the likelihood that one of them will fall short of the second round. But that sets the stage for a thriller in Melbourne.

The co-hosts have no choice but to chase a win on Monday, and they’ll be boosted by Samantha Kerr’s return, whether that’s as a starter or a sub. While the Matildas don’t necessarily need to be ultra-attacking from the first whistle, I expect a fast start with a noisy home crowd behind them.

A draw will stamp Canada’s ticket to the next round, but I don’t see them falling into the trap of sitting back and clinging on. Priestman’s team rebounded well from a rough first half against the Irish and it would be no surprise to see Christine Sinclair and Sophie Schmidt, two of the subs that sparked a greater attacking threat, given bigger roles against Australia.

These teams like to dominate the possession battle (both had north of 60% of the ball in their last game) but they’ve looked surprisingly vulnerable at the back. The Irish attack gave Canada fits in the first half on Thursday, while the Nigerians netted three times against the Australians.

There are sure to be plenty of nerves in such a do-or-die matchup, and I see that translating to scoring chances at both ends. I’m grabbing these odds for the Over on 2.5 goals.

My best bet: Over 2.5 total goals (+115 at bet365)

Canada vs Australia same-game parlay

Over 2.5 goals (+115)

Over 2 cards (-163)

Samantha Kerr anytime goal (+120)

I’ve made the case for the pressure and tension in Melbourne to tilt this contest towards a more open, attacking style — and those same factors should make this a physical battle, too. With both teams fighting to save their World Cup hopes, we should see some tough tackling and I like the odds for at least three cards as desperation kicks in.

The script is beautifully laid out for Kerr to ride to the rescue on Monday. She may not be able to pull Australia into the knockout rounds, but she’s always a threat to get on the scoresheet and the Canadians looked shaky at the back against the Irish.

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Canada vs Australia spread and Over/Under analysis

The Australians enter this final group game on a clear mission: get the three points. Meanwhile, Canada have the safety net of qualifying with a draw — and that’s likely part of the reason that the co-hosts start as slight favorites, though you can find plus odds for all three outcomes on Monday.

Just as Kerr has dominated most of the headlines around the Matildas’ World Cup so far, Sinclair’s role and fitness have prompted big questions for Canada, who will need to be much sharper than their first 45 minutes against the Irish.

Priestman’s triple substitution at half-time made an instant impact and it’s reasonable to think the Canadians unlocked their best lineup in the second half on the way to 17 shots (seven on target). Pairing Sinclair with Jessie Fleming gave the build-up play more fizz, even if Priestman is still searching for answers in the central striker role.

Given all the attacking talent on show, a stalemate would be a real shock. There’s value in the BTTS odds and both teams hit the Over on 2.5 goals in their last contest. If Kerr starts and is close to 100%, the Over looks like an even better bet.