Women’s World Cup: Canada vs. Nigeria: Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

As part of the FIFA Women’s World Cup opening day, Canada battles Nigeria in a Group B fixture. 

Led by striker Christine Sinclair, Canada enters the tournament as a relative long shot to win it all. At BetMGM Sportsbook, the Canadians are 33/1 to win the tournament, good for the 11th-shortest odds. 

Manager Bev Priestman hopes this match helps his squad right the ship. Entering the tournament, Canada is 1-0-4 (W-D-L) in its last five matches. 

Even so, Canada is a -350 moneyline favorite against Nigeria, which has +775 odds to win outright. A draw has +450 odds. The Over/Under is 2.5 goals and juiced to -190 for the Over for this 10:30 p.m. ET match on Thursday. 

Canada vs. Nigeria Women’s World Cup Prediction + Best Bet

Both Teams to Score – “Yes” (-110) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Although Canada enters this match in poor form, most of its recent results can be attributed to the level of competition. 

Over their last five matches, the Canadians have played Brazil twice, Japan, France and the United States Women’s National Team. Presumably, facing 40th-ranked Nigeria will give Canada a boost on offense.

The Candians’ most recent match against a stout France defense saw them create 0.94 expected goals, per footystats.org. In two matches against Brazil – a team ranked eighth in the world – Canada scored in both while creating at least one expected goal in each match. 

On the flip side, this Nigerian defense leaves much to be desired and has struggled against lesser competition. In a February friendly against Costa Rica, Nigeria conceded one expected goal to a side 29 spots behind Canada in the FIFA rankings. 

A different February friendly against Colombia saw Nigeria concede one goal off 1.75 expected goals. And in an October match against Japan, Nigeria allowed two goals off 1.73 expected goals, again per footystats.org. 

Based on those outputs, we’ll be shocked if Canada fails to score on Thursday. Oddsmakers share that belief, with Canada over 0.5 goals priced at -1400 (93.3% implied probability). 

That said, don’t discount the quality of this Nigeria attack. In that October match against Japan, manager Randy Waldrum’s side generated 1.04 expected goals. Considering Canada created a mere 0.34 xG in its match against Japan, that’s quite a feat. 

Nigeria also held its own in two games against USWNT’s rugged defense in October, logging an expected goal in the first game and scoring an actual goal in the second contest.

It’s also worth remembering that these teams met not too long ago, playing to a 2-2 drawback in April 2022. Canada created 2.23 expected goals in that game but surrendered 1.09 xG on seven shots, suggesting a high quality of shots for Nigeria. 

Accordingly, we’ll back another match that sees goals on both ends of the pitch. Back this prop bet if it remains available at -110 odds or better.