Canada vs. Australia Picks, Predictions & Women's World Cup Odds: Sam Kerr Back for Crucial Canada Decider

Sam Kerr is expected to make her return to the pitch as Canada and Australia eye a spot in the Round of 16. Read on for our Canada vs. Australia picks based on the Women's World Cup odds from our best World Cup betting sites.

Australia will have their superstar captain back for this one. Sam Kerr, who is the highest paid female player in the world, declared that she is "definitely going to be available" for the match. She’s been missing since injuring her calf on the eve of the competition. 

Canada beat Australia as recently as last September. Adriana Leon scored a brace for Les Rouges in the 2-1 win in Sydney. Leon, who scored her first goal of this tournament in last week’s win over Ireland, has scored 10 goals under head coach Bev Priestman in all competitions, more than any other player during her tenure. Check out our Women's World Cup odds.

Here is our best Canada vs. Australia pick for the Women's World Cup (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canada vs. Australia pick

Over 2.5 goals (+120 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Since 2016, Canada have beaten Australia in every match they’ve played. The Canucks have outscored the Matildas 5-1 during that three-game winning streak.

In their last six matches in all competitions, Les Rouges have won two, drawn one, and lost three. They scored five and conceded eight in that stretch, scoring first in one of the six contests. They had two first-half goals, while their opponents netted five times in the first 45 minutes. 

The Matildas have won four and lost two of their last six. They scored nine and conceded four over that stretch, netting first in five of the six. They had three goals in the first half, while their opponents netted only once before the break.

Canada have finished the group stage unbeaten at just one World Cup (2015). They have kept a clean sheet in five of their last eight group stage games in the competition. The Matildas haven’t lost consecutive World Cup group games since 2003. No host country has failed to qualify from the groups in tournament history. 

Australia have scored in 25 of their 28 games at the FIFA Women's World Cup (89.3%), of all teams to have competed in more than one edition, only USA (90.4% - 47/52) have scored in a higher share of their matches. However, the Matildas have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of their 28 games in the FIFA Women’s World Cup (3/28). This match is screaming Over at us, no matter how we look at it.

Canada vs. Australia best odds

PointsBet (+120)

Kerr’s availability makes this play more attractive. She’s the all-time leading scorer for Australia and the only female player to win the Golden Boot in three different leagues on three different continents. 

Australia have to score to have any chance of progressing. Defeat could also eliminate Canada, so as soon as one team scores, things could open up. 

There isn’t much difference in price between our main books. Until Sunday, Caesars’ +115 was the best value, but PointsBet has increased its odds on this play to +120. Because this game means so much for both teams, I’m sticking four stars on it. The match could be end-to-end with both sides desperate for a result. 

Canada vs. Australia game info

• Date: Monday, July 31, 6 a.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Location: Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne, Australia
• Weather: 55 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5 mph winds

Canada-Australia pick made 7/30/2023 at 3:10 a.m. ET.

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