Cardinals vs. Cubs: Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets (7/20/23)
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals atChicago Cubs
- When: Thursday, July 20
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET / 5:05 p.m. PT
- Where: Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Cardinals +105, Cubs -125
- Runline: Cardinals +1.5 (-190), Cubs -1.5 (+160)
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 Runs (-115/-105)
Moneyline
The St. Louis Cardinals (43-53) and Chicago Cubs (45-50) kick off a four-game rivalry series at Wrigley Field on Thursday.
The Cubs demolished the Washington Nationals in their last two games, outscoring them 25-6. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are on a five-game winning streak and have won seven of their last eight. Both teams are coming into this game hot.
St. Louis sends lefty Steven Matz out to the mound tonight. Matz is 0-7 in 20 appearances (12 starts) with a 4.86 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 76 innings pitched. Chicago starts Marcus Stroman, who is 10-6 in 20 starts with a 2.88 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 118 2/3 innings this year.
The Cards are 17-24 as the moneyline underdog this year, while the Cubs are a solid 27-20 as the moneyline favorite. St. Louis has struggled on the road, going 21-27 away from Busch Stadium. Conversely, Chicago is 24-25 at Wrigley Field.
With the Cubs at home and having the pitching edge, it’s unsurprising to see them favored.
Runline
The spread shows that the Cardinals are 48-48 against the runline this season, including 27-21 on the road. Chicago, meanwhile, is 49-46 against the runline, including 25-24 at home.
St. Louis has a -21 run differential this year which explains their losing record thus far. The Cubs have a +38 run differential, however, so it’s surprising to see them five games under .500.
According to the math, Chicago is expected to win this game by 0.6 runs, making the Cardinals a better choice on the runline.
Total
Looking at the Over/Under, both teams have been strong with the Over recently. The Over is 4-1 in St. Louis’ last five games, while the Cubs have hit the Over in five straight games and nine of their last 10.
Chicago features a potent offense averaging 4.82 runs per game, which ranks 10th in MLB. The Cardinals’ lineup is right behind them, though, ranking 11th with 4.73 runs per game.
St. Louis also gives up a ton of runs, surrendering the seventh-most per game at 4.95. The Cubs are better in this regard, yielding 4.42 runs per game.
Based on those numbers, we expect these teams to both score and allow more than 8.5 runs tonight and recommend backing the Over.
