Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, odds: best bet on starting pitching advantage
Willson Contreras makes his contentious return to Wrigley Field on Monday evening, setting up our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction for this NL Central matchup.
I doubt Contreras and his 105 OPS+ will greatly affect this game. Instead, I’m targeting a wager based on the Cubs’ starting pitching advantage and the Cardinals’ overall incompetence.
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Moneyline: Cardinals (+116) vs. Cubs (-136)
Spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-184) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+152)
Total: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)
Chicago Cubs F5 ML (-132)
Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman has been surreal this season.
Stroman, a sinkerballer, looks to force weak contact, specifically ground balls. Well, he’s on pace for a 60.2% ground-ball rate, which ranks third among qualified starting pitchers.
As a result, he’s pitched to a 2.18 ERA through seven starts. His expected ERA shows regression (3.97), but I think that statistic underrates ground-ball pitchers, given peripherals are heavily based on the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs).
Stroman might not record FIP-happy strikeout numbers, but he’ll get the job done.
And either way, Stroman is a vastly superior pitcher than his counterpart.
Cardinals’ starting pitcher Miles Mikolas sits with a 5.79 ERA and a 6.14 expected ERA after seven starts. The Cardinals’ rotation has been a disaster this year, and Mikolas’ performance is a huge part of the problem.
The Cardinals have the offensive advantage, but their lineup is slowly coming back down to Earth after a hot start. They grade out as a bottom-10 lineup over the past two weeks.
The Cubs aren’t hitting much better, but they’ve been a vastly more competent team overall. The Cardinals are now 13 games under .500, while the Cubs have exceeded expectations by staying in the division hunt at 17-17.
Both bullpens were used heavily on Sunday, so I don’t care to invest in the full-game market. Instead, I’ll back the Cubs on the F5 ML at home, where I expect Stroman and Co. to use their advantages and get out to an early lead.
