Mariners vs. Cubs prediction, odds: weather report opens value on total

We have a Mariners vs. Cubs prediction as Chicago tries for a three-game sweep of Seattle.

It’s been an embarrassing start to the season for the Mariners, who sit at 4-8 after three straight losses. They are not playing up to preseason expectations.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are soaring at 6-4. The offseason acquisitions of Dansby Swanson and Eric Hosmer are already paying dividends, and Seiya Suzuki is expected to return soon.

The wind should be blowing straight out to center at Wrigley Field, which always makes for an exciting, high-scoring baseball game. As a response, the sportsbooks have set the total over 10.

But is that an overreaction?

Moneyline: Mariners (-110) vs. Cubs (-110)

Spread: Mariners +1.5 (-195) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+162)

Total: Over 11 (-105) | Under 11 (-115)

Under 11 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

Yes, the balls will carry at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, and it makes sense the over got steamed once the weather report came out.

But the winds will matter much less with Marcus Stroman starting for the Cubs. Because of his sinker-slider mix, Stroman is a ground-ball-heavy pitcher, boasting a career ground-ball rate of 56.8%.

The wind won’t help the Mariners if they can’t get the ball off the ground.

The wind could help the Cubs, given Gilbert is a fastball-heavy pitcher with a career 41.5% fly-ball rate. However, he’s changing his arsenal, throwing more sliders and curveballs this season.

It’s a very small sample size, but Gilbert’s ground-ball rate is up over 55% through two starts this season. Of course, we can expect that number to drop with regular regression, but I’m not ruling out that he’s made strides with a refined pitch mix.

Either way, both pitchers are dealing.

Stroman has yet to allow a run through 12 innings. Gilbert’s 3.60 ERA would be much lower if not for an unlucky .360 BABIP, and his 2.76 expected ERA shows he’s pitching better than his results.

I expect these two starting pitchers to neutralize the hitter-friendly environment. Therefore, the total is now too high.

It also helps that I project both bullpens and defenses as above average. Meanwhile, I’m unsure of both offenses, as the Mariners aren’t hitting the ball (94 wRC+), and the Cubs have gotten lucky (. 350 BABIP).

Ultimately, I trust my initial read. And The Action Network’s PRO model projects this total at only 9.71, meaning there is value on the overinflated under 11 (-115) number available at Caesars Sportsbook.