Dodgers vs Cardinals Prediction, Picks, Odds

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20 May 2023

Dodgers vs Cardinals Prediction, Picks, Odds

Noah Syndergaard makes for as easy a stolen-bases target as any pitcher. But, which Cardinal to back? How about all of them. Our MLB picks get creative as the Dodgers get taken tonight.

The Los Angeles Dodgers rebounded nicely after Thursday’s 18-6 loss with a 5-0 shutout win at Busch Stadium last night vs. the St. Louis Cardinals as slight -114 road favorites. Now in tonight’s rubber match, oddsmakers are pricing this game as a pick ‘em as Noah Syndergaard opposes Miles Mikolas.

With Syndergaard on the mound, the Cards’ base runners have a great stolen base matchup tonight, giving plenty of value to the home side’s stolen base market.

Find out where my best bets lie in my MLB betting picks for Dodgers vs. Cardinals on Saturday, May 20.

Dodgers vs Cardinals odds

Dodgers vs Cardinals predictions

Noah Syndergaard is one of the easiest and most-targeted starting pitchers to steal a base on. Since 2019, he’s allowed 40 swipes at a .91% success rate and 0.234 stolen bases per inning. Only Sandy Alcantara and Robbie Ray had allowed more SBs entering the season but the LA right-hander has a much higher success rate and a worse SB/IP than the aforementioned pitchers.

On the season, he’s allowed 10 stolen bases on 10 attempts through eight starts and 36.1 innings pitched. Of the four St. Louis players with at least 10 at-bats vs. Thor, each has at least one stolen base — Paul Goldschmidt - 2, Nolan Arenado - 1, Wilson Contreras - 1, and Paul DeJong - 1.

There are plenty of names to pick but the players returning the most +EV from THE BAT projections are Brendan Donovanbet365), Nolan Gorman (+1425), Contreras (+825), and Arenado (+1425).

They aren’t the most probable to steal a bag, that honor belongs to Tommy Edman (+210) who is expected to return to the lineup after pinch-hitting for a couple of days with an abdominal issue, and Oscar Mercado (+310), but with huge odds, there are plenty of ways to bet them.

There's nothing wrong with betting all six players as singles as they all are showing +EV with THE BAT projections, but I’m going to round-robin all six in doubles (0.05u) and triples (0.01u) which is 35 total bets (15 bets at 2 legs and 20 bets at 3 legs).

It’s a little work to log them all in through 365's SGP, but this is the best stolen-base matchup an offense can have and there are some big odds for guys who have already had success stealing vs. Syndergaard.

In total, this is a 0.95-unit wager that consists of 35 separate bets where, if the best two hit, that’s a 10.5-unit win. It’s a one-unit risk for a very big payout if the Cardinals can swipe multiple bags — something Syndergaard has allowed in nearly half his starts.

St. Louis is a Top-10 team in terms of stealing bags and other steal-happy teams that have faced the L.A. starter have run free, with Pittsburgh going 3-for-3, the Cubs going 3-for-3, and Arizona going 2-for-2 in stolen base attempts vs. Syndergaard.

If you're new to round robins, I'm betting every 2-leg combination of the six players at 0.05 units (15 bets) and every 3-leg combination at 0.01 units (20 total bets).

My best bet: Cardinals team stolen base round-robin (six players at 2x and 3x at bet365)

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Dodgers vs Cardinals moneyline analysis

L.A. closed as a -150 favorite in the opener of this series, which was a Julio Urias start — who is usually overvalued by 5 to 10 points in terms of the moneyline. Last night, the Dodgers got shorter with Tony Gonsolin on the mound and closed as a slight -115 favorite. Tonight, the books have set this game as a pick ‘em, but I don’t see how this pitching matchup is 40 points better for St. Louis than Urias vs. Adam Wainwright.

Neither Miles Mikolas nor Syndergaard are trusted pitchers, and despite pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his last six starts, batters are still hitting over .300 against the St. Louis starter. With an xBA that sits in the Bottom-3% of baseball, it isn’t just being unlucky, either. He doesn’t miss bats (Bottom-4% in Whiff%) and gets hit hard. If he gave up six runs nobody would be surprised.

Syndergaard also is not anywhere the pitcher he was nearly a half decade ago. Batters are hitting over .300 vs. him and his high OBP is never a great thing as he allows more stolen bases/IP than any other pitcher in baseball. St. Louis is a team that likes to swipe bags and could be staying out of the double-play ball often today.

The Dodgers have a fairly decent bullpen edge today, as all of their relievers are available, unlike the Cards, who will likely be without three right-handed middle relievers tonight.

L.A. has managed to win each of Syndergaard’s last four starts despite him pitching to a 7.53 ERA over that stretch.

Dodgers vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

The scoring dried up in the second game of the series last night with LA’s 5-0 win following a 24-run game on Thursday.

The Dodgers did all of their damage to the St. Louis bullpen, which might not have three middle relievers tonight after Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Andre Pallante pitched last night, and have either pitched on back-to-back days or threw 20-plus pitches yesterday.

If Mikolas continues to give up hits with a .310 batting average against, the elite offense of the visitors could be digging into a tired bullpen that has been very busy over the last three days.

The St. Louis offense also has a great matchup vs. Syndergaard, who allows a ton of stolen bases and is just two starts removed from an index finger issue (a cut) that caused him to get lifted after three outs. He threw just 59 pitches in the following start and will likely see around 75-85 pitches today if everything goes right.

The Over saw plenty of money in the first two games of the series driving up the total a full run in some places but we’re seeing the Under on the 9.5 come in as some books have moved to a flat 9 today.

Hitting conditions are better tonight in St. Louis than they were last night, with a closing total of 9. Batters will see mid-70s temps and sunshine with slight winds that shouldn’t play a factor.

I think tonight’s game is ripe for runs with a pair of pitchers with issues and the two best offenses in the NL rated by WAR.

Dodgers vs Cardinals game info

Starting pitchers

Noah Syndergaard (1-3, 5.94 ERA): Syndergaard went just 59 pitches in his last start thanks to a cut on his index finger but he came out of that game good and should have a longer leash today. The right-hander has had an eventful first year in LA and has an xERA 1.2 points lower than his actual ERA and a high .331 BABIP. THE BAT projects 80 pitches, 14.3 outs, 2.99 strikeouts, 1.23 stolen bases, and 2.97 earned runs.

Miles Mikolas (2-1, 4.91 ERA): Mikolas is coming off a quality start in Fenway and is pitching to a decent 2.70 ERA over his last six starts. The right-hander gave up 16 runs over his first three starts which have skewed his ERA. His FIP isn’t in great shape thanks to plenty of walks — 14 in 47.2 innings — and seven home runs. Despite the decent success, batters are still hitting .310 vs. him on the season and a .842 OPS. THE BAT is projecting 96 pitches 17.4 outs, 4.06 strikeouts, and 3.2 earned runs.