Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev prediction: US Open odds, pick

Carlos Alcaraz will face his first real test of the 2023 US Open on Wednesday.

After making light work of Dominik Koepfer, Lloyd Harris, Dan Evans and Matteo Arnaldi, Alcaraz will set his sights on a match with the in-form Alexander Zverev to keep his hopes of repeating as the US Open champion alive. 

Alcaraz is a -425 favorite to win the match at the time of writing. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev pick 

A trip to the US Open quarterfinals through the toughest section of the draw is quite a feat for Alexander Zverev considering where the German standout was at the beginning of 2023.

Zverev, 26, missed the entire second half of 2022 through injury and spent the early part of this year trying to get back into form.

The first half of the year was full of ups and downs for Zverev, but a trip to the semifinals at Roland Garros was a clear signal that he was back.

Zverev backed up that run with a decent showing during the grass swing and then a title right after Wimbledon, putting him on the radar for a lot of punters as a +4000 outsider at the US Open.

Those bettors will be quite pleased with the way that the native of Hamburg has looked through the first four rounds, although taking on the World No. 1 after a marathon match with Jannik Sinner on Monday night is a tall task.

Alcaraz came into the 2023 US Open as the second-favorite to Novak Djokovic and he’s lived up to the billing.

The Spaniard has yet to put a foot wrong in Flushing Meadows and now stands with a lifetime 15-1 record at the New York slam. 

If we rewind about three months ago there were skeptics wondering how Alcaraz would respond to a nervy loss to Djokovic in the French Open semifinals and all Carlitos has done since then is defeat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final as part of a run that saw the World No. 1 win 22 of 24 matches.

Alcaraz has yet to really face a top-level opponent in this field, but he’s seen off plenty of elite players during his current stretch of form so that shouldn’t be a worry for those looking to back the defending champion.

I’m also not too fussed about Zverev owning a 3-2 record over Alcaraz in their respective careers as three of those wins came in 2021 before Alcaraz made his leap into his current stratosphere.

That said, I do think Zverev’s serve and powerful groundstrokes should give him a platform to hang around in this match for at least a while.

Alcaraz should be the fresher player and get separation if the match goes into deep waters, but I think the German will be able to win enough games to get this Over 36.5 games.

Additionally, I’ll be looking to play Alcaraz if he falls behind either 1-0 or 2-1 as Zverev’s tank will be a lot closer to empty after it took him nearly five hours to beat Sinner on Monday.

The bet: Over 36.5 games (-110, FanDuel)