From Jannik Sinner to Holger Rune, who are the most likely first-time ATP Grand Slam winners in 2024?

One name ruled the Grand Slams in 2023, and it was a familiar one.

Novak Djokovic won three of the four majors this season and lost in the final of the other one at Wimbledon to Carlos Alcaraz.

If beating Djokovic over five sets is not the toughest assignment in sports right now, it’s close to the top.

Alcaraz has shown he can do it, but who else could step up to the plate in 2024 and challenge Djokovic?

We pick out the leading contenders to be potential first-time Grand Slam winners next season...

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner finished 2023 riding a big ol’ wave of form.

“He's seriously impressive, the level he's showing,” was Alex de Minaur’s assessment of Sinner at the Davis Cup.

Sinner had some decent results in the first half of the year – making the final of Indian Wells and semis at Wimbledon – but it was winning his first Masters title in Toronto that appeared to give him wings.

He followed that by taking out Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev to win Beijing, then beat Medvedev again in the Vienna final, and then shone at the Nitto ATP Finals, where he beat Djokovic and Medvedev (again), before losing in the final to Djokovic.

A spectacular finish to the season was rounded out by beating Djokovic in singles and doubles to help Italy win their first Davis Cup title in 47 years.

It’s no surprise that Sinner’s form has got people talking.

Here’s Nick Kyrgios on Sinner: "He’s definitely going to win some Slams. Next year, I reckon, he might win a Slam. That’s my early prediction, yeah, he’s incredible."

And Alcaraz: “He is one of those guys who are able to win a Grand Slam. I think he’s going to reach No. 1 in 2024 or he’s going to give himself the chance to reach No. 1.”

Holger Rune

In terms of soaring up to the top of the rankings, only really Alcaraz can compete with Holger Rune’s rise over the last 18 months.

Rune was just outside the top 90 at the start of April 2022, but rocketed up after his stunning Paris Masters win later in the year, which saw him beat Djokovic in the final.

This year he had a severe dip in form after making the Wimbledon quarter-finals, winning just one of his next eight matches, including three straight first-round losses in Toronto, Cincinnati and at the US Open.

But the addition of Boris Becker to his coaching team looks a good move.

With Becker in his box, Rune looked to have renewed confidence in his game as he pushed Djokovic close in Paris and Turin, and also gave Sinner a tough test.

Djokovic has high expectations for Rune, who has beaten him twice in five meetings.

“I think he’s got huge potential, potential to be a Grand Slam winner, no doubt. So I’m sure that Boris will be able to help improve his game overall.”

Alexander Zverev

The 2022 French Open looked like it could be Alexander Zverev’s moment.

Beat Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals and not only would Zverev have had a shot at his first Grand Slam title, but he would have been a win away from getting to world No. 1.

Zverev was pushing Nadal close in a tight match before a serious injury wrecked his chances – and ruled him out for the rest of the year.

There have been times this season where it looked like Zverev might not return to the same level he showed before the injury. After losing to Medvedev in Rome he said he felt "1,000 kilometres away" from the top players in the game, and described Alcaraz as on a “different level” to him after a straight-sets defeat in Madrid.

But there have been definite signs of encouragement in the last four months.

There have been two titles won, victories over Medvedev, Sinner and Alcaraz, qualification for the ATP Finals, and a place back in the top 10 for the first time in a year.

Zverev has not been as good as he was before the injury, but he’s trending in the right direction, and with confidence restored and an off-season to continue improvements, he could be in the mix for Grand Slams again in 2024.

Ben Shelton

More speculative than the other picks, but Ben Shelton showed this year he has the game to go deep at Slams.

In his first full season on tour he made the quarter finals of the Australian Open and semi finals of the US Open.

Shelton is a player with huge weapons who seems to thrive on the big stage, and they don't come any bigger than the majors.

Perhaps 2024 will be too early for Shelton, but he has been picked out as a future Slam winner by tennis great Rod Laver.

"We're going to see him winning a Slam," said Laver at the Laver Cup. "He's got one of the biggest serves, a big left-hander, he doesn't make many mistakes. He sees an opening and he goes for it."

Watch out for Shelton to make an impact again next year, particularly at the hard court Slams.