US Open predictions: Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, pick
It may seem inevitable that we’re heading for another epic contest between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the US Open on Sunday, but Daniil Medvedev will have his say first.
The clever Russian navigated a tough quarterfinal matchup in terrible conditions against his best friend, Andrey Rublev, with aplomb on Wednesday and should be brimming with confidence ahead of his tilt with Alcaraz on Friday night.
Alcaraz is deservingly the clear favorite to win the match, but there are some signals that point to Medvedev being a lot to handle and worth a punt at a tempting price.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz pick
Things are never quite linear with Daniil Medvedev.
The 27-year-old Russian has one of the highest ceilings in the sport, but there can be stretches throughout the tennis calendar where Medvedev’s game disappears out of nowhere.
A dip in form before the US Open seemed to cool people off on Medvedev’s chances to make a run at the US Open, but the Moscow native hasn’t put a foot wrong yet during this run.
Medvedev has dropped just two sets through his first five matches and his last two performances against Alex de Minaur and Rublev were full of promising signs for what’s to come on Friday night.
At the same time there aren’t many holes you can poke in Alcaraz’s game at the moment.
The World No. 1 hasn’t faced the most difficult path to the semifinals, but he answered his most significant question of the tournament with a rousing performance against Alex Zverev in the semifinals.
Zverev was clearly still feeling the effects of a marathon match against Jannik Sinner two nights prior, but Alcaraz didn’t let the German into the match at all. It was a clinic.
Alcaraz owns a 2-0 record against Medvedev this season, including a dominant performance in the Wimbledon semifinals, but these conditions should suit the Russian much more than the grass in London.
Medvedev is quite a tricky opponent to gameplan for when he’s on song and it’s pretty clear that the 2021 US Open champion is in a good nick of form at the moment.
His unorthodox style, massive serve and ability to defend the baseline gives him a foundation to work with against Alcaraz in this tilt and he’s one of a few players on tour that has the rally tolerance to compete with the Spaniard in a best-of-5 match.
Alcaraz has been imperious so far, but Medvedev has been right there with him. The price on Medvedev is long enough for a bite.
The bet: Daniil Medvedev +285 (FanDuel)
