Carolina Hurricanes vs. Vegas Golden Knights Preview and Picks

Two of the NHL’s juggernauts stand toe-to-toe on Wednesday night. The Pacific Division-leading Vegas Golden Knights need to snap out of their mini-funk, but they’ll have to get past one of the best the Eastern Conference has to offer. The Carolina Hurricanes sit atop the Metropolitan Division, collecting wins in 12 of their past 14. Still, the Canes have struck an unsustainable balance with their analytics and are regression candidates over their coming games.Hurricanes @ Golden Knights Game Information

Carolina is surging over its recent sample but has inflated its metrics well beyond normal ranges. Over their past five games, the Metropolitan Division leaders are averaging an eye-popping 17.8 high-danger and 33.8 scoring opportunities. That exceeds their season-long averages of 12.0 and 26.4 by a substantive margin. 

Three of their  have attempted at least 11 quality chances, their second-worst six-game stretch of the season. Those defensive woes could be compounded on the road, as the Canes play just their third game as the visitors since January 25.

The Golden Knights have their own gaudy metrics propping up their recent game scores; however, they have fewer good results substantiating their efforts. 

Vegas has outplayed its opponents in seven straight contests, accumulating a 55.3% expected goals-for rating. They’ve been particularly staunch in their own end, holding their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in five of seven, with an average of 8.0 opportunities per game.

Improved defensive play has yet to come at the expense of offensive production. The Golden Knights have eclipsed double-digit high-danger and 28 scoring chances in four of seven outings. Considering the Canes’ defensive lapses, that trend should continue in this non-conference meeting.

Despite the solid play, Vegas only has four wins across the seven-game sample.

• Golden Knights +115
• Chandler Stephenson Any Time Goal Scorer +430

Vegas’ scoring has suffered without Mark Stone, but improved output should start to follow their solid production metrics. One skater who is due for a breakout performance is Chandler Stephenson. 

Analytically, Stephenson rates as one of the Golden Knights’ top forwards. The former third-round pick leads the forward corps in high-danger and scoring chances, resulting in the fourth-highest expected goals-for rating. 

Additionally, the Knights deploy Stephenson on their top powerplay unit, leaving him with plenty of opportunities to contribute offensively. 

Stephenson has recorded a shot on goal in 12 straight contests, recording multiple blasts in seven of those outings. Still, he has only one goal across that stretch. His performance is analogous to the Knights, as we expect Stephenson and Vegas to progress over their coming games. 

That leaves an advantage in backing the underdog home side and Stephenson as an any-time goal scorer.