Carolina Hurricanes vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview

The Buffalo Sabres host the Carolina Hurricanes in one of the final matchups before the All-Star break. The Canes are coming off a monumental comeback victory over the Los Angeles Kings last night. But at 5-0-2, the Sabres have been among the best teams in the NHL over the past couple of weeks. Buffalo is a live home dog on Wednesday night.Hurricanes @ Sabres Game Information

Solid underlying metrics validate the Sabres’ recent hot streak. Buffalo has outplayed its opponents in four straight, posting a cumulative 57.2% expected goals-for rating. Ascending offensive metrics are integral to the Sabres’ improved play.

The playoff hopefuls have attempted ten or more high-danger chances in three of their past four. Further, the Sabres have gone north of 23 scoring opportunities in three of four, out-chancing their opponents in each outing.

That spells trouble for the visiting Hurricanes, who have seen a surge in high-danger goals against. Carolina’s goalies have combined for a 64.3% high-danger save percentage across their past three outings, dragging their overall mark down to 88.2%.

Moreover, the Metropolitan Division leaders misplayed their goaltending situation. The Canes started primary goalie Frederik Andersen last night, meaning Antti Raanta is the projected starter against the Sabres. Raanta’s 12 wins are incompatible with his 89.7% save percentage and -3.6 goals saved above average, making him a natural regression candidate. 

• Buffalo Sabres Moneyline +125
• Jeff Skinner Any-Time Goal Scorer +220

Predictably, Buffalo’s scoring is driven by their top line. Tage Thompson is all the rage these days, but his linemates deserve some credit for their ability to dictate play. Specifically, Jeff Skinner rates as the top forward of the trio, leading his linemates in expected goals-for rating and offensive zone starts.

At +190, Skinner presents value as an any-time goal scorer. The former Calder Trophy winner has recently fallen well off his season-long shooting percentage (14.9%), scoring on just 8.6% of shots over his past 16 games. Skinner maintained solid analytics throughout that time and should flourish over the coming games.

The Sabres should carve up the Hurricanes at home. Fatigue and a backup netminder put the Canes at a disadvantage versus a sharp Sabres squad. On that basis, back the Sabres outright and Skinner as an any-time goal scorer.