Cavaliers vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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06 March 2024

Cavaliers vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

While both Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell will be sidelined for tonight's affair, we're expecting one of the two defenses to struggle. Find out where to look for that betting value in our Cavaliers vs. Hawks betting picks below.

Do you consider Donovan Mitchell to be a particularly stout defender? Does his current absence from a knee injury make you think the Cleveland Cavaliers should be better or worse defensively?

The answer may surprise you, and anytime there's a surprise, there should be found betting value in the NBA odds. Tonight, that encourages faith in an unexpected place: the Atlanta Hawks offense without Trae Young.

The Hawks are struggling these days and may fall out of the Play-In Tournament entirely, but a touch of trust in them leads our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Cavaliers vs. Hawks on Wednesday, March 6.

Cavaliers vs Hawks odds

Cavaliers vs Hawks predictions

Gauging the Atlanta Hawks without Trae Young is easier than gauging the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell.

Sure, Mitchell has missed 14 games this season while Young has missed just 10 — and that has an additional handicapping value because Mitchell can miss only three more if he wants to make an All-NBA team, something to keep in mind as Cleveland reaches the weekend and Mitchell may remain questionable as markets open, but Young’s absence has the exact impact one would expect while Mitchell’s is a bit beyond anticipation

The Hawks are only 0.2 points worse in net rating in 10 games without Young this season, their defense improving by five points and offsetting almost all of his offensive loss.

The Cavs fall off significantly without Mitchell, 6.3 points worse in defensive rating in 14 games without him. That's a big enough dropoff to warrant some skepticism, and the immediate thought is Mitchell’s 14 games on the sideline must have overlapped plenty with Evan Mobley’s 23, but only four of Mitchell’s missed games coincided with Mobley’s lost December.

Still, to reduce that noise entirely, focus the ratings on a more recent stretch, since Mobley fully returned to Cleveland’s rotation on February 3.

In 10 games with Mitchell, the Cavaliers’ defensive rating is 110.9; in five games without him, it's 114.2. Less surprisingly but still worth noting, Cleveland’s offensive rating is 9.4 points worse without Mitchell in that stretch.

Regardless of which sample size you prefer, it's clear Donovan Mitchell is a needed piece of the Cavaliers’ defense, even if that is not exactly his reputation.

You are inclined to doubt the Hawks’ offense without Young, but that is known and understood. Doubting the Cavs’ defense without Mitchell is a bit more of a surprise, thus presenting a bit more value.

Add in the reality that Cleveland will be playing its third game in four nights tonight and the second half of a back-to-back, there is a bounty of reason to bet against the Cavs’ defense.

My best bet:Hawks team total Over 108.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Cavaliers vs Hawks same-game parlay

Hawks team total Over 108.5

Hawks -3

Dejounte Murray Over 7.5 assists

There's reason to doubt Atlanta without Young. Against teams above .500, the Hawks have gone just 1-3 when the opponent has its best player. Beating last night’s depleted Knicks or the Magic without Paolo Banchero is only so impressive or informative.

Then again, the Cavs are missing their best player, not to mention have gone 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games. Last night’s dramatic comeback win against the Celtics likely took too much out of Cleveland to come back with a complete effort tonight.

Focusing on Dejounte Murray’s assist prop to complete this SGP is in no small part because sportsbooks are not yet making De’Andre Hunter's props widely available. Hunter has averaged 18.1 points when Young is on the sideline, shooting 53% from the field on those nights and 50% from three on nearly five attempts per game.

If you spot a Hunter prop closer to tip-off, consider it. Until then, bet on the player setting him up with those shots. In six of his 10 games without Young, Murray has handed out 9+ assists.

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Cavaliers vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

Cleveland opened as a 2-point favorite before Tuesday night’s action saw the Hawks cruise past a short-handed New York while the Cavs stormed back against Boston.

Those efforts flipped this spread, jumping to favoring the Hawks by a point shortly after those games, a number that then climbed as high as -3 on Wednesday morning before most books settled at -2.5.

Atlanta has covered the spread the last three times it was a one-bucket home favorite.

The total opened at 221.5 and then plummeted as Tuesday’s games finished, falling to 217 before night’s end and cratering to 214.5 on Wednesday morning. Consider that the correct market, meaning now is the ideal time to grab any Over, including the Hawks team total Over.