Cavs vs 76ers odds, picks, predictions: Bet on low-scoring total
Philadelphia looked lethargic coming out of the All-Star break as it failed to reach the century mark in a 110-96 home defeat to the Knicks on Thursday. Unfortunately, the 76ers won’t have much time to regroup with the Cavaliers in town Friday night.
The loss spoiled Kyle Lowry’s return to Philadelphia, where he also starred as a member of the Villanova Wildcats.
Lowry played for the first time in over a month after his role diminished with Miami before ultimately being traded to Charlotte and agreeing to a contract buyout, thus paving his way to sign with the 76ers.
And while Lowry used the last month to work on his conditioning, I was surprised to see him supplant the backup point guard, logging 25 minutes compared to just nine for Cameron Payne.
To his credit, Lowry scored 11 points in the game. He dished out five assists, grabbed four rebounds, and was the only 76ers player to finish with a positive Plus/Minus (PM) of +4.
Lowry and 76ers head coach Nick Nurse do have some history, considering they won a title together with the Toronto Raptors. However, his expanded role could be worth monitoring, particularly when considering betting on the total in Philadelphia’s games.
The Cavaliers suffered a rare loss on Thursday night against the Orlando Magic.
It was only Cleveland’s third loss in its last 20 games. Perhaps it should’ve been expected with Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell sidelined with a non-COVID illness.
Mitchell will be a game-time decision, and even if he does play, he might not be at 100%.
The Cavaliers might need to rely on their defense if they’re going to get back into the win column. Per TeamRankings, Cleveland boasts the second-best defense in efficiency, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions.
It’s been Cleveland’s defense that helped it climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference. Since Jan. 3, Cleveland’s 106.5 defensive rating has been the best in the league, according to NBA.com.
The Cavaliers do a tremendous job defending the 3-point line and the paint, ranking in the top ten of both categories.
As a result, there aren’t a ton of uncontested shots for opposing teams, and with Philadelphia missing its best player in Joel Embiid, Cleveland can focus on its perimeter defense to further disrupt the 76ers’ offense.
With the 76ers allowing seven more points per contest without Embiid in the lineup, I can’t help but wonder if their head coach is opting for more control in these games.
Moreover, if Nurse looks at the box score, which I’m sure he did, he might focus on Lowry’s PM as a reason for optimism.
The 76ers had 97 possessions against the Knicks, and while it’s only one game, Lowry’s involvement doesn’t exactly signal a team looking to get up and down the court.
Embiid’s absence impacts the 76ers on both sides of the court, as they’re also averaging nine fewer points per game (112.33 vs. 121.38).
Against New York, Philadelphia’s starting lineup included Nicolas Batum, Tobias Harris and Paul Reed with those three players combining to score just nine points.
Tyrese Maxey scored 35 points, but opposing teams can live with the Philadelphia guard going off if it means keeping everyone else quiet.
For the 76ers to fill the scoring void, they’ll need Buddy Hield to step up—but he’s very much a spot-up perimeter shooter.
With the Cavaliers ranking seventh in opponent 3-point attempts (33.5 per game), getting open looks could be challenging for Hield on Friday night.
My initial handicap for this game boiled down to three factors: Mitchell’s availability, Cleveland’s defense and Lowry’s influence on the game’s pace.
But another factor we must consider involves both teams playing on short rest.
According to our Action Labs database, this season, in games involving the Cavaliers or 76ers, where the home and away teams are playing on back-to-back nights, the total is a perfect 5-0 to the under.
My model projects a total closer to 226.5 points, giving me just enough margin to recommend a play on the under at 228.5.
Pick: Under 228.5 or better (-108 at DraftKings)
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