76ers vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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24 December 2023

76ers vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Joel Embiid's absence in this matchup will be a major blow for the 76ers, but that doesn't mean this will be a walk in the park for Miami. Tyrese Maxey has taken a major leap for Philly this year, and our NBA picks trust him to go off without Embiid.

The NBA’s marathon Christmas Day schedule includes a stop in South Beach when the Miami Heat host a Philadelphia 76ers team missing Joel Embiid, who’s out with an ankle injury.

Embiid limped through most of Friday’s 121-111 win over the Toronto Raptors to finish with 31 points and 10 rebounds, but he won’t be risked here as the 76ers hit the road after going a perfect 5-0 at home in December.

Miami has lineup question marks of its own — with Jimmy Butler listed as questionable — but the host has fared well in this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings. NBA odds have the Heatles as the home favorites since the Embiid news, but I'll be targeting a Sixer in the NBA player props market for my best bet.

Find out who in my free NBA picks for the 76ers vs Heat on December 25.

76ers vs Heat odds

76ers vs Heat predictions

With Embiid on such a tear lately — he secured his 13th straight game of at least 30 points and 10 rebounds on Friday — it’s sometimes easy to underestimate the impact of Tyrese Maxey. But Maxey gets the Christmas stage all to himself tonight with Embiid sitting out.

The whirlwind guard has taken another leap this season in a bigger playmaking role, almost doubling his nightly assists and pouring in 26 points a game. All of his props are attractive for this Christmas battle, but I’m leaning toward his points prop against a Miami Heat team with some defensive weaknesses on the perimeter.

It’s been a good shot-making week for Maxey too. He’s averaged 32 points over his last three games — including a 33-point performance against the Raptors last time out — and he’s mixed it up with drives to the basket and effortless 3-point shooting.

The Over has major appeal when you consider Maxey has knocked down four or more triples in each of his last four games, and he could be in line for as many as 25 field goal attempts here as the visitors’ No. 1 option.

Trae Young scored 30 points against the Heat on Friday, and Maxey brings some of that same shiftiness with the added boost of lightning speed. I see him embracing the national TV spotlight and hitting the Over here.

My best bet: Tyrese Maxey Over 30.5 points (-110 at bet365)

76ers vs Heat same-game parlay

Tyrese Maxey Over 30.5 points

Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds

Kyle Lowry Over 6.5 points

The Embiid-Bam Adebayo battle was set to be one of the most intense matchups of the day before the Philadelphia big man was ruled out. The Adebayo props already had some appeal, and I feel even better about them without Embiid’s presence around the rim.

Bam is still finding his way again after missing a couple of weeks, but he pulled down 11 rebounds in 38 minutes against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday, and I like his chances of outplaying whichever backups Nick Nurse calls on to replace Embiid.

Kyle Lowry’s Philadelphia roots are no secret, and he tends to raise his game against his hometown team. Lowry is coming off two very quiet outings — just six total points — but he’s had 17 points three times this month.

I see Kyle Lowry putting up a double-digit points night here, in part because he’s shooting an impressive 44% from deep this year.

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76ers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

This matchup would have been a real coin flip if Embiid was healthy, but the Heat look good as 2.5-point favorites. That said, much depends on Butler’s status, which may only become clearer close to tip-off.

Although the 76ers are 8-2 in their last 10 games and a healthy 8-4 on the road, I’m throwing those numbers away since Embiid is sidelined tonight.

I’m expecting an up-tempo contest that keeps the Over 225.5 in play. That’s been a winning ticket in 18 of the 76ers’ 28 games this season, and it’s 7-3 in their last 10 outings. Without Embiid, Philadelphia’s best bet might be turning this into a shootout.

Meanwhile, the Heat had hit the Over in four straight contests before narrowly falling short in the 122-113 loss to the Hawks on Friday. Miami has scored 115 points or more in six of its last seven games.