Celtics vs. 76ers prediction, odds: Can we trust Philadelphia?

We have a Celtics vs. 76ers prediction as the series shifts to Philadelphia knotted at one game.

The 76ers won the series opener even without their star center Joel Embiid. But when Embiid returned for Game 2, the team looked disjointed as Boston thrashed them 121-87.

While the initial thought might’ve been to give Embiid a chance to knock off the rust before returning home for Game 3, one has to wonder if the effects of the lopsided loss will carry over into Game 3.

In this preview, I’ll share why Embiid’s return helps to bring the best out of the Celtics in this matchup.

Spread: BOS -2 (-109) vs. PHI +2 (-112)

Moneyline: BOS (-127) vs. PHI (+108)

Total: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)

Celtics ML -127

The absence of Embiid in Game 1 meant that the Celtics could get whatever they wanted on the interior. Boston racked up 66 points inside the paint, 24 more than Philadelphia.

However, while Boston was putting in work on the inside, it completely abandoned what made it so successful this season: its perimeter shooting. The Celtics attempted just 26 3-pointers despite making 10 of those shots and shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc.

In contrast, the 76ers hoisted 38 3-pointers while making 17 field goals to keep within striking distance of Boston with Embiid sidelined.

But in Game 2, the Celtics looked more like themselves as they attempted 51 3-pointers while hitting 20 of those attempts for a 39.2% field goal rate.

Embiid’s presence might’ve been exactly what the Celtics needed to rediscover their perimeter shooting because he was a massive deterrent in the front court, with five blocked shots in 27 minutes.

Boston finished with just 36 points inside the paint. Thus, with Embiid back, the Celtics are even more incentivized to attack from the perimeter.

As good as Embiid is, the 76ers’ offense can sometimes get predictable. He’s likely to draw a lot of attention from double teams, and he has to make the right decision to find the open man.

Philadelphia finished with just 13 assists in Game 2, which suggests their ball movement was stagnant, with many isolation plays being run. The problem for the 76ers now is that Embiid has to get his touches to get back into rhythm.

Boston dominated the regular-season series, winning three of the four meetings. Philadelphia’s lone win was by the slimmest of margins in a 103-101 victory.

However, it’s worth noting that Boston’s Jaylen Brown missed the game due to lower back pain. Brown is coming off a solid performance in Game 2 after leading all scorers with 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting.

While Jayson Tatum might get much of the praise, Brown’s a competent scorer in his own right.

Usually, this would be a spot you’d expect teams to bounce back after such a disappointing loss. However, this Celtics team is a bad matchup for Philadelphia.

Action Labs database, which dates back to the 2005 season, shows that the 76ers are 0-4 against the spread in the playoffs as an underdog of two or more points when they’re coming off a loss of 20 or more points.

I expect we’ll have some juice in the building with Embiid set to receive his MVP award in front of his home fans. As a result, I suspect the game will be a bit tight, or so I’ll bypass the point spread altogether and just back the Celtics on the moneyline.