Celtics vs. Bucks odds, props, predictions: Target OVER in matchup of top teams in East

The Celtics can send the entire NBA a message Thursday by defeating the Bucks. Not only would it make them the first team in the league to 30 wins, it would also mean they would take down the best team in the West and second-best team in the East on consecutive nights, likely doing so short-handed.

Handicapping Celtics vs. Bucks betting odds, props, and predictions hinge on weighing what can be counted on most – surging Boston playing well on the road as it plays for the third time in four nights – or slumping Milwaukee at home with a few days rest in its back pocket.

The Celtics won this season’s first meeting, last season’s regular-season series 2-1, and defeated the Bucks the last time these teams played in a playoff series, rallying from a 3-2 deficit in the 2022 East semis.

Boston won 119-116 at TD Garden on Nov. 22, holding Giannis Antetokounmpo to 21 points on 7-for-20 shooting. Boston scored the first 10 points, led throughout and withstood a late charge in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. Brook Lopez scored a game-high 28 points, while Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 26 points and eight assists.

Celtics vs. Bucks odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Boston vs. Milwaukee:

Celtics betting news: Road back-to-back situation represents latest challenge for NBA’s top team

Boston (29-8 SU, 17-18-2 ATS) struggled Wednesday with the Timberwolves, who were without center Rudy Gobert and point guard Mike Conley, but ultimately held serve at home with a 127-120 OT win. The Celtics were without center Kristaps Porzingis (right knee contusion), but got a combined 80 points out of stars Jayson Tatum and Brown to overcome an unexpected fourth-quarter deficit. 

Porzingis is expected to return and face the Bucks, but Al Horford hasn’t played on a second night of a back-to-back all season. 

In the handicapping world, this is typically when you fade a team. Boston is playing its third game in four nights and traveled into Milwaukee after going extras with a talented Timberwolves team on Wednesday night. Heck, it’s their fifth game in seven nights. This is known as a scheduled loss. 

The Celtics have earned the right not to be blindly written off. In fact, they’ve won on the second night of a back-to-back five out of six times this season, losing only in Charlotte on Nov. 20 after playing in Memphis the previous night. Boston hung 144 points on the Kings on the second of a back-to-back in Sacramento after losing an overtime game at the Warriors. 

Third game in four nights? They're 7-2. The losses were that Hornets game and Monday’s 133-131 loss in Indiana. Their victory over the Bucks actually came in their third game in four nights after that aforementioned Memphis/Charlotte run that closed a four-game road trip.

Porzingis warmed up with the Celtics prior to Wednesday’s game despite being ruled out, so his exclusion was more likely related to splitting up him and Horford. It would be surprising if he doesn’t play, and would press third-stringer Neemias Queta into extended action. 

Jrue Holiday should get a standing ovation from the Bucks crowd in his first game back since being moved. He was a huge reason Milwaukee hung a banner a few years ago, called Fiserv Forum home for three seasons and was always a fan favorite. Holiday isn’t scoring as much with his new team since that’s not his role, but is every bit as effective a defender and floor general.

Bucks betting news: Lillard returns after one-game absence, with backup also Payne in place

The Bucks (25-12, 15-22) are getting Damian Lillard back after missing Monday’s blowout loss to the Jazz due to personal reasons, but they’ve struggled on both sides of the ball despite their record. Milwaukee lost on Christmas Day in New York and have dropped four of five in 2024, beating only the Spurs.

On top of Lillard's absence, primary backup Cam Payne wasn’t cleared from concussion protocol against the Jazz, leaving the Bucks awfully short-handed at lead guard. That left rookie Andre Jackson, Jr. to start next to shooter Malik Beasley, and the Jazz took advantage by surging out to a 41-23 lead after a quarter.

While Jackson has had a positive impact on games already this season, he’s a non-shooter who Utah played off of, daring him to shoot while packing the paint to help Antetokounmpo from going off. That strategy won’t be available to Boston with both Lillard and Payne back, so look for the Bucks to keep the floor spread as they look to snap out of their ugliest stretch of the season. 

Only Jae Crowder is on the current injury report for Milwaukee, who is 4-2 with two or more days of rest between games. Antetokounmpo is putting up video game-like numbers despite his team’s struggles this month, averaging 34.6 points, 14 rebounds, 7.8 assists and shooting 60.4 percent from the field thus far in 2024. He’s coming off his lowest-scoring output of this past 10-game stretch and should remain aggressive. 

Lillard scored 27 points despite shooting just 30 percent from 3-point range in the first meeting and is mired in a shooting slump, making just 14 of his last 59 shots from beyond the arc over his last seven games.  He’s averaging just 19.8 points this month, so the hope is that  getting the day off to start the week pays off. 

Celtics vs. Bucks player prop picks

Antetokounmpo’s number for points + rebounds + assists has been set at , and you figure his drive and fresh legs mean he’ll look to see exactly how tired Boston’s frontcourt looks. I’d ride the over there.

Back the under on Lillard topping points + rebounds + assists given his slump and the fact Khris Middleton is looking increasingly like himself these days. Expect Middleton’s number of P+R+A to be surpassed.

With Porzingis likely to get the bulk of the minutes in the middle, the over on 28.5 points plus rebounds should be eclipsed.

Celtics vs. Bucks ATS pick

The Bucks are favored by only points in a situation where they would be favored by double-digits against anyone else. Boston has had Milwaukee’s number of late and is 8-2 over its last 10, but it does have to overcome the obstacle of being so busy lately and having to travel into town after such a taxing win over Minnesota.

If the Bucks don’t handle business here, there are going to be some serious questions raised, and frankly, with the core group that includes Lillard, those are mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Given how effective and efficient the Celtics are on offense, a high-scoring affair appears to be the most likely outcome.