Celtics vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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11 January 2024

Celtics vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Kristaps Porzingis is in a unique position tonight to puncture the Bucks' interior phalanx with his passing. See why our NBA picks are backing the Celtics big in more ways than one.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Celtics are on the tail end of a back-to-back as they travel to Wisconsin to take on the Milwaukee Bucks after a thrilling overtime victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and we've got you covered with our best bet from this matchup featuring the latest NBA odds.

Playing the top team in the Western Conference and then hopping on a flight to take on the Bucks might be one of the tougher back-to-backs you will see this season. But let's be serious, it's 2024, and the Celtics aren't flying on a budget airplane.

I know one player whose legs will feel like a million bucks on Thursday, as he is no doubt chomping at the bit to guard Damian Lillard: Jrue Holiday.

Holiday didn't make the card this time around, but find out who I'm backing with my free NBA picks for the Celtics vs. Bucks game on Thursday, January 11th.

Celtics vs Bucks odds

Celtics vs Bucks predictions

If you've been following my picks recently, you would have seen me attack assists props against the Bucks' frontcourt with Isaiah Hartenstein on Christmas Day and Lauri Markkanen on Monday. The Bucks present a matchup where the right centers can produce more assists than usual, and Kristaps Porzingis fits the category of skill, role, and price point in the odds that we can exploit.

Porzingis missed the front end of the Celtics' back-to-back against the Timberwolves on Wednesday, so the sportsbooks were slow to post his odds today. Once his name didn't appear on the injury report, Kristaps Porzingis's odds were up, and boy, did they not disappoint.

The offensive advantage that Porzingis brings to the Celtics is that he can stretch the floor for them and force opposing centers to guard even a couple of steps beyond the 3-point line. This will be a major key on Thursday, as the Celtics should use Porzingis to pull Brook Lopez away from the basket and eliminate the Bucks' rim protector from disrupting drives.

I expect to see a ton of touches for Porzingis, and the actions should involve him looking for Celtics cutters with the lane vacated by Lopez, hopefully resulting in high-value potential assists.

This is an alternate line on Porzingis that will be difficult to find at sportsbooks other than bet365. Porzingis is trading with a total of 1.5 (-170) for the Over at bet365, and with our projection of 2.4, this results in an expected value of 7%.

This same projection against the +170 price point yields an expected value of 15%, allowing us to price the Over 2.5 assists at +135. If you can't find the alternate line, the original line of 1.5 assists (-170) also offers you an edge.

My best bet: Kristaps Porzingis 3+ assists (+170 at bet365)

Celtics vs Bucks same-game parlay

Kristaps Porzingis 3+ assists

Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 threes made

Brook Lopez Under 2.5 blocks

If the Celtics are going to keep Lopez away from the rim, there will be an emphasis on Porzingis shooting the 3-pointer. Zinger knocking down an early three will also open up the lanes for cutters, and the three assists we're looking for from him. If Porzingis is shooting the ball effectively from beyond the arc, I ultimately think we will end up getting the assists we are looking for as a result.

If the theme behind all of this is keeping Lopez away from the rim, then we also have to look at the Under on his blocked shots, all correlating with the offensive strategy I believe we'll see from the Celtics on Thursday.

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Celtics vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as a 6-point favorite over the Celtics on Thursday, but that number is now all the way down to Bucks -2.5. The line really started to move once Porzingis was removed from the injury report.

The total opened at 239.5 at DraftKings and is now trading at 244.5. There aren't really any indicators in the market to show that it will stop moving towards the Over, so don't be surprised if this total touches 245.5 really soon.