Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Thursday's Games

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20 April 2023

Are Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns capable of regaining home-court advantage in Game 3 against the Los Angeles Clippers? Jon MetlerNBA odds.

We swung for the fences on Wednesday but failed. Karl-Anthony Towns might as well be on a milk carton following his performance against the Denver Nuggets in Game 2.

We're back on Thursday and hunting for green check marks with some two-leg same-game parlays. It's always a good idea to look into these as straight bets too, and I break each pick down in our NBA best bets.

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Thursday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Thursday's NBA SGP picks

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Kings vs. Warriors odds

NBA SGP predictions: Kings vs. Warriors

Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists vs. Warriors (+122)

This prop is a perfect example of why you should always check the alternate odds. I recommended betting the Over on Sabonis' assist prop in our NBA Best Bets, which was trading at 5.5 (-135) through DraftKings. Unfortunately, at FanDuel the Over on 5.5 is priced at -172, which is vastly different.

Sabonis is projected to record 6.8 assists on Thursday, so we can price this alternate total at -105. The prop gets an expected value of 14% as a result of this projection, which is the exact same expected value we're receiving on the Over on 5.5 at -135 through DraftKings.

By switching to an alternate Over, we're able to extract the same expected value from this Sabonis player prop. The expected value would drop to 4% if we choose the Over on 5.5 (-172) available at FanDuel.

Malik Monk Under 15.5 points vs. Warriors (+110)

I straight bet this prop at +122 early this morning, and the odds moving now is a positive sign. Despite the rise, +110 remains a valuable price point based on our projections.

We can price this prop at -120 since Monk is projected to score 15.2 points against the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. There's a 15% expected value on this alternate Under.

NBA SGP predictions: Suns vs. Clippers

Devin Booker Under 28.5 points vs. Clippers (+102)

Booker scorched the Los Angeles Clippers while scoring 38 points in Game 2. Even though it's hard to back an alternate Under on Booker, the math says it's a good bet, so trust it.

This prop can be priced at -130 since Booker is projected to score 27.6 points. We can increase our expected value by over 2% while playing the alternate Under of 27.5 at +102 instead of the normal total of 28.5 at -120.

Chris Paul Over 13.5 points vs. Clippers (-115)

Kevin Durant is drawing a lot of defensive attention from the Clippers, so Paul going Over his points total sounds like a very enticing bet, and the math indicates we should hit the button. While I'd love to give you an alternate Over at plus money, the projection of 14.9 points isn't high enough to push this prop any further.

We get a higher expected value playing the Over on 13.5 points at -115, which is priced at -130.

NBA player prop picks made 04/20/2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.